[IBL] IBL AC Wildcard Race (predictions)

[Andrew Selder]

In the spirit of helping the odds makers,

here’s the break down of WMS starters for the rest of the season barring injury:

Kluber: 7 starts
Scherzer: 6 starts
Smyly: 5 starts
Lyles: 1 start
Buchholz: 6 starts
Gonzales: 2 starts
Walker: 2 starts 
Turner: 4 starts

> On Oct 2, 2015, at 9:32 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Man, I like those odds for WMS!  Nice potential for the risk. 
>  
> Despite my writeup, I like PAD and WMS (even though the two of them have 6 games against each other going ahead).  I also think that TRI (Jed) has a good shot as well (although he'd be the first to dispute that).
>  
> Doug
> 
> On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Alex Campbell <arc213 at gmail.com <mailto:arc213 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> Vegas Odds:  AC Wild Card
> 
> PAD -200
> POR -105
> BAL +105
> TRI + 160
> WMS +250
> 
> Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account Nelson's history of futility.
> 
> On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com <mailto:aeronutty43 at gmail.com>> wrote:
> The playoff chase in the IBL AC League
> 
>  
> With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still are entertaining serious playoff hopes.  While the division leaders (COU, PHI, MCM) are all safely in the playoffs as division winners, Tri-State (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los Angeles  (PAD),  Williamstown (WMS), Portland (POR) and Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card slots.  As play entered into Week 23, the standings were as follows:
> 
> PAD: 73 wins with 24 games remaining
> POR: 68 wins with 30 games remaining
> BAL: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
> TRI: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
> WMS: 64 wins with 33 games remaining
> NJR: 62 wins with 30 games remaining
>  
> Looking at the remaining schedule
> PAD (NJR, NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))
> POR (NJR, PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))
> BAL (BOW, KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))
> TRI (MCM, WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))
> WMS (KAT, MAD, TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))
> NJR (POR, BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))
>  
> Based solely on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records against their opponents
> PAD: 10-14 the rest of the way
> POR: 10-17 the rest of the way
> BAL: 19-11 the rest of the way
> TRI: 16-14 the rest of the way
> WMS: 16-17 the rest of the way
> NJR: 14-16 the rest of the way
>  
> PAD suffers from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and having only gone 2-10 thus far against Greg and his Cougars.  POR suffers from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series, and like PAD, POR has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.  TRI should be on the green side of .500 thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series where Jed has gone 10-2 against them so far.  BAL gets away with murder thanks to seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a collective 17-7 against them to date. 
>  
> What doesn’t get accounted for here  are such things as owners who play players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already and are coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice with TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division leader).  So, do division leaders coast as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t see injuries to key players?  Probably.  That alone is probably worth a bit over 1 win per series against a division leader.
>  
> So, let’s assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is actually EASIER due to the “coasting factor”.  How did the contenders do against division leaders this year?
>  
> PAD: 6-18 (2 series remaining)
> POR: 10-23 (3 series remaining)
> BAL: 12-12 (2 series remaining)
> TRI: 9-24 (2 series remaining)
> WMS: 14-19 (3 series remaining)
> NJR: 8-16 (2 series remaining)
>  
> Thanks to this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest of the way, giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those playing 2 series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.
>  
> PAD: 13-11 the rest of the way
> POR: 15-12 the rest of the way
> BAL: 22-8 the rest of the way (ed: flawed! The numbers are flawed!!!)
> TRI: 19-11 the rest of the way
> WMS: 21-12 the rest of the way
> NJR: 17-13 the rest of the way
>  
> Lastly, what about injuries?  Most of these teams have been fighting injuries to one extent or another.  But of the teams listed, only PAD (Richards and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have significant injuries (WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player). 
>  
> So, after ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?  With the following predicted final results:
>  
> BAL: 89 wins
> TRI: 86 wins
> PAD: 86 wins
> WMS: 85 wins
> POR: 83 wins
> NJR: 79 wins.
>  
> But that’s why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but that’s beside the point.  Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate (or Inaccurate) this assessment is!
> 
> 

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