<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" class="">In the spirit of helping the odds makers,<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">here’s the break down of WMS starters for the rest of the season barring injury:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Kluber: 7 starts</div><div class="">Scherzer: 6 starts</div><div class="">Smyly: 5 starts</div><div class="">Lyles: 1 start</div><div class="">Buchholz: 6 starts</div><div class="">Gonzales: 2 starts</div><div class="">Walker: 2 starts </div><div class="">Turner: 4 starts</div><div class=""><br class=""><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Oct 2, 2015, at 9:32 AM, Doug Palmer <<a href="mailto:aeronutty43@gmail.com" class="">aeronutty43@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="">Man, I like those odds for WMS! Nice potential for the risk. </div><div class=""> </div><div class="">Despite my writeup, I like PAD and WMS (even though the two of them have 6 games against each other going ahead). I also think that TRI (Jed) has a good shot as well (although he'd be the first to dispute that).</div><div class=""> </div><div class="">Doug</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br class=""><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Alex Campbell <span dir="ltr" class=""><<a href="mailto:arc213@gmail.com" target="_blank" class="">arc213@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br class=""><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class="">Vegas Odds: AC Wild Card<br class=""><br class=""></div>PAD -200<br class=""></div>POR -105<br class=""></div><div class="">BAL +105<br class=""></div>TRI + 160<br class=""></div></div>WMS +250<br class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account Nelson's history of futility.<br class=""></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="HOEnZb"><div class="h5"><div class="gmail_extra"><br class=""><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <span dir="ltr" class=""><<a href="mailto:aeronutty43@gmail.com" target="_blank" class="">aeronutty43@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br class=""><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid" class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class=""><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 10pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">The playoff chase in the IBL AC League</font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 10pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri" class=""><font size="3" class="">With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still
are entertaining serious playoff hopes.<span class="">
</span>While the division leaders (COU, PHI, MCM) are all safely in the
playoffs as division winners, Tri-State (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los
Angeles<span class=""> </span>(PAD),<span class=""> </span>Williamstown (WMS), Portland (POR) and
Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card slots.<span class=""> </span>As play entered into Week 23, the standings
were as follows:</font></font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD: 73 wins
with 24 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR: 68 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">BAL: 67 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI: 67 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS: 64 wins
with 33 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR: 62 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">Looking at
the remaining schedule</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD (NJR,
NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR (NJR,
PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">BAL (BOW,
KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI (MCM,
WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS (KAT, MAD,
TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR (POR,
BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">Based solely
on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records against their
opponents</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD: 10-14
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR: 10-17
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">BAL: 19-11
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI: 16-14
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS: 16-17
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR: 14-16
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" class=""><font class=""><font face="Calibri" class="">PAD suffers
from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and having only gone 2-10
thus far against Greg and his Cougars.<span class="">
</span>POR suffers from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series,
and like PAD, POR has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.<span class=""> </span>TRI should be on the green side of .500
thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series where Jed has gone 10-2
against them so far.<span class=""> </span>BAL gets away with
murder thanks to seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a
collective 17-7 against them to date.<span class=""> </span></font></font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font face="Calibri" class=""><font size="3" class="">What doesn’t
get accounted for here<span class=""> </span>are such things
as owners who play players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already
and are coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice
with TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division
leader).<span class=""> </span>So, do division leaders coast
as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t see injuries to key players?<span class=""> </span>Probably.<span class="">
</span>That alone is probably worth a bit over 1 win per series against a
division leader. </font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font face="Calibri" class=""><font size="3" class="">So, let’s
assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is actually EASIER due
to the “coasting factor”.<span class=""> </span>How did the
contenders do against division leaders this year?</font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD: 6-18 (2
series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR: 10-23
(3 series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">BAL: 12-12
(2 series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI: 9-24 (2
series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS: 14-19 (3
series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR: 8-16 (2
series remaining)</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">Thanks to
this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest of the way,
giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those playing 2
series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD: 13-11
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR: 15-12
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" class=""><font class=""><font face="Calibri" class="">BAL: 22-8
the rest of the way (<i class="">ed: flawed! The numbers
are flawed!!!)</i></font></font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI: 19-11
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS: 21-12
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR: 17-13
the rest of the way</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" class=""><font class=""><font face="Calibri" class="">Lastly, what
about injuries?<span class=""> </span>Most of these teams have
been fighting injuries to one extent or another.<span class=""> </span>But of the teams listed, only PAD (Richards
and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have significant injuries
(WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).<span class=""> </span></font></font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font face="Calibri" class=""><font size="3" class="">So, after
ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?<span class=""> </span>With the following predicted final results:</font></font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">BAL: 89 wins</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">TRI: 86 wins</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">PAD: 86 wins</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">WMS: 85 wins</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">POR: 83 wins</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">NJR: 79
wins.</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri" class=""> </font></p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;" class=""><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="">But that’s
why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but that’s beside the
point.<span class=""> </span>Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate
(or Inaccurate) this assessment is!</font></div><font size="3" face="Times New Roman" class="">
</font></div>
</blockquote></div><br class=""></div>
</div></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div>
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