[IBL] IBL AC Wildcard Race (predictions)

[Doug Palmer]

Man, I like those odds for WMS!  Nice potential for the risk.

Despite my writeup, I like PAD and WMS (even though the two of them have 6
games against each other going ahead).  I also think that TRI (Jed) has a
good shot as well (although he'd be the first to dispute that).

Doug

On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Alex Campbell <arc213 at gmail.com> wrote:

> Vegas Odds:  AC Wild Card
>
> PAD -200
> POR -105
> BAL +105
> TRI + 160
> WMS +250
>
> Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account Nelson's
> history of futility.
>
> On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> The playoff chase in the IBL AC League
>>
>>
>>
>> With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still are
>> entertaining serious playoff hopes.  While the division leaders (COU,
>> PHI, MCM) are all safely in the playoffs as division winners, Tri-State
>> (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los Angeles  (PAD),  Williamstown (WMS),
>> Portland (POR) and Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card
>> slots.  As play entered into Week 23, the standings were as follows:
>>
>> PAD: 73 wins with 24 games remaining
>>
>> POR: 68 wins with 30 games remaining
>>
>> BAL: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>>
>> TRI: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>>
>> WMS: 64 wins with 33 games remaining
>>
>> NJR: 62 wins with 30 games remaining
>>
>>
>>
>> Looking at the remaining schedule
>>
>> PAD (NJR, NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))
>>
>> POR (NJR, PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))
>>
>> BAL (BOW, KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))
>>
>> TRI (MCM, WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))
>>
>> WMS (KAT, MAD, TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))
>>
>> NJR (POR, BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))
>>
>>
>>
>> Based solely on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records
>> against their opponents
>>
>> PAD: 10-14 the rest of the way
>>
>> POR: 10-17 the rest of the way
>>
>> BAL: 19-11 the rest of the way
>>
>> TRI: 16-14 the rest of the way
>>
>> WMS: 16-17 the rest of the way
>>
>> NJR: 14-16 the rest of the way
>>
>>
>>
>> PAD suffers from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and
>> having only gone 2-10 thus far against Greg and his Cougars.  POR
>> suffers from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series, and like
>> PAD, POR has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.  TRI should be on
>> the green side of .500 thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series
>> where Jed has gone 10-2 against them so far.  BAL gets away with murder
>> thanks to seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a
>> collective 17-7 against them to date.
>>
>>
>>
>> What doesn’t get accounted for here  are such things as owners who play
>> players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already and are
>> coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice with
>> TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division leader).
>> So, do division leaders coast as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t
>> see injuries to key players?  Probably.  That alone is probably worth a
>> bit over 1 win per series against a division leader.
>>
>>
>>
>> So, let’s assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is
>> actually EASIER due to the “coasting factor”.  How did the contenders do
>> against division leaders this year?
>>
>>
>>
>> PAD: 6-18 (2 series remaining)
>>
>> POR: 10-23 (3 series remaining)
>>
>> BAL: 12-12 (2 series remaining)
>>
>> TRI: 9-24 (2 series remaining)
>>
>> WMS: 14-19 (3 series remaining)
>>
>> NJR: 8-16 (2 series remaining)
>>
>>
>>
>> Thanks to this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest
>> of the way, giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those
>> playing 2 series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.
>>
>>
>>
>> PAD: 13-11 the rest of the way
>>
>> POR: 15-12 the rest of the way
>>
>> BAL: 22-8 the rest of the way (*ed: flawed! The numbers are flawed!!!)*
>>
>> TRI: 19-11 the rest of the way
>>
>> WMS: 21-12 the rest of the way
>>
>> NJR: 17-13 the rest of the way
>>
>>
>>
>> Lastly, what about injuries?  Most of these teams have been fighting
>> injuries to one extent or another.  But of the teams listed, only PAD
>> (Richards and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have
>> significant injuries (WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> So, after ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?  With the
>> following predicted final results:
>>
>>
>>
>> BAL: 89 wins
>>
>> TRI: 86 wins
>>
>> PAD: 86 wins
>>
>> WMS: 85 wins
>>
>> POR: 83 wins
>>
>> NJR: 79 wins.
>>
>>
>>
>> But that’s why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but
>> that’s beside the point.  Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate (or
>> Inaccurate) this assessment is!
>>
>
>
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