[IBL] IBL AC Wildcard Race (predictions)

[Doug Palmer]

I like to help the odds makers as well...

Anticipated remaining starts for the Crabs

Arrieta: 6 starts
Ross: 6 starts
Cole: 4 starts
Porcello: 6 starts
Gausman: 2 starts
Sanchez: 3 starts
Noesi: 3 starts



On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 1:09 PM, Andrew Selder <aselder at me.com> wrote:

> In the spirit of helping the odds makers,
>
> here’s the break down of WMS starters for the rest of the season barring
> injury:
>
> Kluber: 7 starts
> Scherzer: 6 starts
> Smyly: 5 starts
> Lyles: 1 start
> Buchholz: 6 starts
> Gonzales: 2 starts
> Walker: 2 starts
> Turner: 4 starts
>
> On Oct 2, 2015, at 9:32 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Man, I like those odds for WMS!  Nice potential for the risk.
>
> Despite my writeup, I like PAD and WMS (even though the two of them have 6
> games against each other going ahead).  I also think that TRI (Jed) has a
> good shot as well (although he'd be the first to dispute that).
>
> Doug
>
> On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Alex Campbell <arc213 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Vegas Odds:  AC Wild Card
>>
>> PAD -200
>> POR -105
>> BAL +105
>> TRI + 160
>> WMS +250
>>
>> Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account
>> Nelson's history of futility.
>>
>> On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> The playoff chase in the IBL AC League
>>>
>>>
>>> With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still are
>>> entertaining serious playoff hopes.  While the division leaders (COU,
>>> PHI, MCM) are all safely in the playoffs as division winners, Tri-State
>>> (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los Angeles  (PAD),  Williamstown (WMS),
>>> Portland (POR) and Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card
>>> slots.  As play entered into Week 23, the standings were as follows:
>>> PAD: 73 wins with 24 games remaining
>>> POR: 68 wins with 30 games remaining
>>> BAL: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>>> TRI: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>>> WMS: 64 wins with 33 games remaining
>>> NJR: 62 wins with 30 games remaining
>>>
>>>
>>> Looking at the remaining schedule
>>> PAD (NJR, NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))
>>> POR (NJR, PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))
>>> BAL (BOW, KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))
>>> TRI (MCM, WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))
>>> WMS (KAT, MAD, TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))
>>> NJR (POR, BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))
>>>
>>>
>>> Based solely on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records
>>> against their opponents
>>> PAD: 10-14 the rest of the way
>>> POR: 10-17 the rest of the way
>>> BAL: 19-11 the rest of the way
>>> TRI: 16-14 the rest of the way
>>> WMS: 16-17 the rest of the way
>>> NJR: 14-16 the rest of the way
>>>
>>>
>>> PAD suffers from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and
>>> having only gone 2-10 thus far against Greg and his Cougars.  POR
>>> suffers from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series, and like
>>> PAD, POR has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.  TRI should be
>>> on the green side of .500 thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series
>>> where Jed has gone 10-2 against them so far.  BAL gets away with murder
>>> thanks to seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a
>>> collective 17-7 against them to date.
>>>
>>>
>>> What doesn’t get accounted for here  are such things as owners who play
>>> players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already and are
>>> coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice with
>>> TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division leader).
>>> So, do division leaders coast as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t
>>> see injuries to key players?  Probably.  That alone is probably worth a
>>> bit over 1 win per series against a division leader.
>>>
>>>
>>> So, let’s assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is
>>> actually EASIER due to the “coasting factor”.  How did the contenders
>>> do against division leaders this year?
>>>
>>>
>>> PAD: 6-18 (2 series remaining)
>>> POR: 10-23 (3 series remaining)
>>> BAL: 12-12 (2 series remaining)
>>> TRI: 9-24 (2 series remaining)
>>> WMS: 14-19 (3 series remaining)
>>> NJR: 8-16 (2 series remaining)
>>>
>>>
>>> Thanks to this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest
>>> of the way, giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those
>>> playing 2 series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.
>>>
>>>
>>> PAD: 13-11 the rest of the way
>>> POR: 15-12 the rest of the way
>>> BAL: 22-8 the rest of the way (*ed: flawed! The numbers are flawed!!!)*
>>> TRI: 19-11 the rest of the way
>>> WMS: 21-12 the rest of the way
>>> NJR: 17-13 the rest of the way
>>>
>>>
>>> Lastly, what about injuries?  Most of these teams have been fighting
>>> injuries to one extent or another.  But of the teams listed, only PAD
>>> (Richards and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have
>>> significant injuries (WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> So, after ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?  With
>>> the following predicted final results:
>>>
>>>
>>> BAL: 89 wins
>>> TRI: 86 wins
>>> PAD: 86 wins
>>> WMS: 85 wins
>>> POR: 83 wins
>>> NJR: 79 wins.
>>>
>>>
>>> But that’s why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but
>>> that’s beside the point.  Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate (or
>>> Inaccurate) this assessment is!
>>>
>>
>>
>
>
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