<div dir="ltr"><div>Man, I like those odds for WMS! Nice potential for the risk. </div><div> </div><div>Despite my writeup, I like PAD and WMS (even though the two of them have 6 games against each other going ahead). I also think that TRI (Jed) has a good shot as well (although he'd be the first to dispute that).</div><div> </div><div>Doug</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Alex Campbell <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:arc213@gmail.com" target="_blank">arc213@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div><div><div><div><div>Vegas Odds: AC Wild Card<br><br></div>PAD -200<br></div>POR -105<br></div><div>BAL +105<br></div>TRI + 160<br></div></div>WMS +250<br><div><div><div><div><div><br></div><div>Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account Nelson's history of futility.<br></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="HOEnZb"><div class="h5"><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:aeronutty43@gmail.com" target="_blank">aeronutty43@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;padding-left:1ex;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-width:1px;border-left-style:solid" class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 10pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">The playoff chase in the IBL AC League</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 10pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 10pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri"><font color="#000000" size="3">With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still
are entertaining serious playoff hopes.<span>
</span>While the division leaders (COU, PHI, MCM) are all safely in the
playoffs as division winners, Tri-State (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los
Angeles<span> </span>(PAD),<span> </span>Williamstown (WMS), Portland (POR) and
Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card slots.<span> </span>As play entered into Week 23, the standings
were as follows:</font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD: 73 wins
with 24 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR: 68 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">BAL: 67 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI: 67 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS: 64 wins
with 33 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR: 62 wins
with 30 games remaining</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">Looking at
the remaining schedule</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD (NJR,
NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR (NJR,
PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">BAL (BOW,
KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI (MCM,
WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS (KAT, MAD,
TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR (POR,
BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">Based solely
on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records against their
opponents</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD: 10-14
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR: 10-17
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">BAL: 19-11
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI: 16-14
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS: 16-17
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR: 14-16
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Calibri">PAD suffers
from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and having only gone 2-10
thus far against Greg and his Cougars.<span>
</span>POR suffers from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series,
and like PAD, POR has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.<span> </span>TRI should be on the green side of .500
thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series where Jed has gone 10-2
against them so far.<span> </span>BAL gets away with
murder thanks to seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a
collective 17-7 against them to date.<span> </span></font></font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri"><font color="#000000" size="3">What doesn’t
get accounted for here<span> </span>are such things
as owners who play players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already
and are coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice
with TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division
leader).<span> </span>So, do division leaders coast
as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t see injuries to key players?<span> </span>Probably.<span>
</span>That alone is probably worth a bit over 1 win per series against a
division leader. </font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri"><font color="#000000" size="3">So, let’s
assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is actually EASIER due
to the “coasting factor”.<span> </span>How did the
contenders do against division leaders this year?</font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD: 6-18 (2
series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR: 10-23
(3 series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">BAL: 12-12
(2 series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI: 9-24 (2
series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS: 14-19 (3
series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR: 8-16 (2
series remaining)</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">Thanks to
this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest of the way,
giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those playing 2
series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD: 13-11
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR: 15-12
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Calibri">BAL: 22-8
the rest of the way (<i>ed: flawed! The numbers
are flawed!!!)</i></font></font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI: 19-11
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS: 21-12
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR: 17-13
the rest of the way</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font color="#000000"><font face="Calibri">Lastly, what
about injuries?<span> </span>Most of these teams have
been fighting injuries to one extent or another.<span> </span>But of the teams listed, only PAD (Richards
and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have significant injuries
(WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).<span> </span></font></font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri"><font color="#000000" size="3">So, after
ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?<span> </span>With the following predicted final results:</font></font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">BAL: 89 wins</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">TRI: 86 wins</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">PAD: 86 wins</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">WMS: 85 wins</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">POR: 83 wins</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">NJR: 79
wins.</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font><p style="margin:0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Calibri">But that’s
why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but that’s beside the
point.<span> </span>Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate
(or Inaccurate) this assessment is!</font></p><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font></div>
</blockquote></div><br></div>
</div></div></blockquote></div><br></div>