[IBL] IBL AC Wildcard Race (predictions)

[Alex Campbell]

Vegas Odds:  AC Wild Card

PAD -200
POR -105
BAL +105
TRI + 160
WMS +250

Note: Computer models that generage odds do not take into account Nelson's
history of futility.

On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 8:59 AM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com> wrote:

> The playoff chase in the IBL AC League
>
>
>
> With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still are
> entertaining serious playoff hopes.  While the division leaders (COU,
> PHI, MCM) are all safely in the playoffs as division winners, Tri-State
> (TRI), New Jersey (NJR), Los Angeles  (PAD),  Williamstown (WMS),
> Portland (POR) and Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card
> slots.  As play entered into Week 23, the standings were as follows:
>
> PAD: 73 wins with 24 games remaining
>
> POR: 68 wins with 30 games remaining
>
> BAL: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>
> TRI: 67 wins with 30 games remaining
>
> WMS: 64 wins with 33 games remaining
>
> NJR: 62 wins with 30 games remaining
>
>
>
> Looking at the remaining schedule
>
> PAD (NJR, NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))
>
> POR (NJR, PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))
>
> BAL (BOW, KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))
>
> TRI (MCM, WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))
>
> WMS (KAT, MAD, TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))
>
> NJR (POR, BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))
>
>
>
> Based solely on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records
> against their opponents
>
> PAD: 10-14 the rest of the way
>
> POR: 10-17 the rest of the way
>
> BAL: 19-11 the rest of the way
>
> TRI: 16-14 the rest of the way
>
> WMS: 16-17 the rest of the way
>
> NJR: 14-16 the rest of the way
>
>
>
> PAD suffers from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and
> having only gone 2-10 thus far against Greg and his Cougars.  POR suffers
> from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series, and like PAD, POR
> has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.  TRI should be on the green
> side of .500 thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series where Jed has
> gone 10-2 against them so far.  BAL gets away with murder thanks to
> seeing POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a collective 17-7
> against them to date.
>
>
>
> What doesn’t get accounted for here  are such things as owners who play
> players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already and are
> coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice with
> TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division leader).
> So, do division leaders coast as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t
> see injuries to key players?  Probably.  That alone is probably worth a
> bit over 1 win per series against a division leader.
>
>
>
> So, let’s assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is
> actually EASIER due to the “coasting factor”.  How did the contenders do
> against division leaders this year?
>
>
>
> PAD: 6-18 (2 series remaining)
>
> POR: 10-23 (3 series remaining)
>
> BAL: 12-12 (2 series remaining)
>
> TRI: 9-24 (2 series remaining)
>
> WMS: 14-19 (3 series remaining)
>
> NJR: 8-16 (2 series remaining)
>
>
>
> Thanks to this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest of
> the way, giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those
> playing 2 series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.
>
>
>
> PAD: 13-11 the rest of the way
>
> POR: 15-12 the rest of the way
>
> BAL: 22-8 the rest of the way (*ed: flawed! The numbers are flawed!!!)*
>
> TRI: 19-11 the rest of the way
>
> WMS: 21-12 the rest of the way
>
> NJR: 17-13 the rest of the way
>
>
>
> Lastly, what about injuries?  Most of these teams have been fighting
> injuries to one extent or another.  But of the teams listed, only PAD
> (Richards and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have
> significant injuries (WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).
>
>
>
>
> So, after ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?  With the
> following predicted final results:
>
>
>
> BAL: 89 wins
>
> TRI: 86 wins
>
> PAD: 86 wins
>
> WMS: 85 wins
>
> POR: 83 wins
>
> NJR: 79 wins.
>
>
>
> But that’s why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but that’s
> beside the point.  Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate (or Inaccurate) this
> assessment is!
>
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