[IBL] Playoff Odds - October 17, 2016

[Doug Palmer]

Chris,

On behalf of Sand Crab faithful everywhere, let me be the first to say
"thank you" for these simulations.  I appreciate both the skill it took as
well as the time to process and post.

As a side note, the drop that showed us with an 80% probability I printed
and stuck on the refrigerator to remind me NOT TO F&^% THIS UP!!! :)

I'm all for anything that brings more fun to the IBL

Doug
Baltimore Sand Crabs

p.s. games 2 and 3 tonight at 9?  BAL at MAD?

On Mon, Oct 17, 2016 at 9:36 AM, Chris Hartjes <chartjes at littlehart.net>
wrote:

> Data dump taken at 09:15AM
>
> A few notes this time:
>
> * it does not take into account the possibility that TRI and NJR play a
> make-up game
> that only happens if necessary
> * BAL at MAD from week 26 needs two games replayed due to MAD using a player
> that was
> injured so the odds in the AC West could dramatically change.
>
> I created this just as an exercise to see if I could figure out the basics
> of
> creating a simulation based on statistical probability. I'm not a
> mathematician so
> when the simulation spit things out that seemed a little weird at times
> (like at one
> point CAN having an 11% chance of a playoff spot despite being 8 games
> behind) I
> would just shrug and figure there was a unique set of circumstances (a high
> probability of CAN making up 8 games in the standings) that caused the
> simulation to
> latch onto it.
>
> This is just something I fooled around with to give people an insight into
> potential
> outcomes and not just give up playing down the stretch like a lot of folks
> tend to
> do. If people feel the need to hassle me about it, I'll just stop sharing
> it and
> y'all can get back to moaning about the rollbot.
>
> I'm happy to share the source code so others can find any problems with my
> approach.
> I've been a computer programmer for a VERY long time and my ego can easily
> handle
> someone pointing out a bug.
>
> AC East
> COU 99.7% Div + 0.3% WC = 100.0%
> TRI 0.3% Div + 52.8% WC = 53.1%
> NJR 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
> KAT 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
>
> AC Central
> PHI 91.1% Div + 8.9% WC = 100.0%
> WMS 8.9% Div + 91.1% WC = 100.0%
> BOW 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
> PAD 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
>
> AC West
> BAL 64.9% Div + 9.6% WC = 74.5%
> MAD 27.7% Div + 23.2% WC = 50.9%
> POR 4.6% Div + 11.7% WC = 16.3%
> MCM 2.8% Div + 2.4% WC = 5.2%
>
> NC East
> MNM 99.8% Div + 0.0% WC = 99.8%
> SKY 0.2% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.2%
> CSG 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
> SDQ 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
>
> NC Central
> SFP 99.3% Div + 0.0% WC = 99.3%
> CAN 0.7% Div + 0.4% WC = 1.1%
> NYK 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
> HAV 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
>
> NC West
> GTY 94.9% Div + 5.1% WC = 100.0%
> SEA 2.9% Div + 97.0% WC = 100.0%
> ODM 2.2% Div + 97.4% WC = 99.6%
> EDG 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
>
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