[IBL] Playoff Odds - October 17, 2016

[Chris Hartjes]

Data dump taken at 09:15AM

A few notes this time:

* it does not take into account the possibility that TRI and NJR play a make-up game
that only happens if necessary
* BAL at MAD from week 26 needs two games replayed due to MAD using a player that was
injured so the odds in the AC West could dramatically change.

I created this just as an exercise to see if I could figure out the basics of
creating a simulation based on statistical probability. I'm not a mathematician so
when the simulation spit things out that seemed a little weird at times (like at one
point CAN having an 11% chance of a playoff spot despite being 8 games behind) I
would just shrug and figure there was a unique set of circumstances (a high
probability of CAN making up 8 games in the standings) that caused the simulation to
latch onto it.

This is just something I fooled around with to give people an insight into potential
outcomes and not just give up playing down the stretch like a lot of folks tend to
do. If people feel the need to hassle me about it, I'll just stop sharing it and
y'all can get back to moaning about the rollbot.

I'm happy to share the source code so others can find any problems with my approach.
I've been a computer programmer for a VERY long time and my ego can easily handle
someone pointing out a bug.

AC East
COU 99.7% Div + 0.3% WC = 100.0%
TRI 0.3% Div + 52.8% WC = 53.1%
NJR 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
KAT 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
PHI 91.1% Div + 8.9% WC = 100.0%
WMS 8.9% Div + 91.1% WC = 100.0%
BOW 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
PAD 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC West
BAL 64.9% Div + 9.6% WC = 74.5%
MAD 27.7% Div + 23.2% WC = 50.9%
POR 4.6% Div + 11.7% WC = 16.3%
MCM 2.8% Div + 2.4% WC = 5.2%

NC East
MNM 99.8% Div + 0.0% WC = 99.8%
SKY 0.2% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.2%
CSG 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
SDQ 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC Central
SFP 99.3% Div + 0.0% WC = 99.3%
CAN 0.7% Div + 0.4% WC = 1.1%
NYK 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
HAV 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC West
GTY 94.9% Div + 5.1% WC = 100.0%
SEA 2.9% Div + 97.0% WC = 100.0%
ODM 2.2% Div + 97.4% WC = 99.6%
EDG 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%