[IBL] comments on mid-season ballot

[Larry Merithew]

Extending Sean's math:

Using his "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP, in order to run out of BF they would have to start the year with a staff having a combined total of less than 1088 IP (75% innings).

To have a staff with that low of an inning total would require one or more of the following:
(a) multiple SP that didn't play a full season, due to injury, late-season call-up, etc.;
(b) a bullpen comprised solely of closer/LOOGY/ROOGY types;
(c) extremely poor decision making regarding roster composition;
(d) bad luck unseen in the history of mankind.

Assume the following:
Team starts with 10 active pitchers totalling 5 SP and 5 RP;
Only 2 pitchers (1 of each) on reserve list;
IP(starters)=3*IP(relievers)

To have only 1088 innings on the roster would require 6 starters to average 136 IP and 6 relievers to average 45.3 IP, with no FA signings the entire season.

IMO, few, if any, teams would start the year with so small a pitching staff, meaning the real IP averages would be even lower. Also, I doubt an owner would go an entire year without signing at least a couple of FA pitchers, if for no other reason than covering for injuries.

Conclusion: running out of BF would probably require conscious intent.

Larry



> From: sweda at ibl.org
> Date: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 12:15:48 -0400
> To: members at lists.ibl.org
> Subject: Re: [IBL] comments on mid-season ballot
> 
> 
> On Jul 26, 2014, at 10:40 AM, Mike Monostra wrote:
> 
> > In defense of the actual number/quality of pitchers used, also remember this: We only have 24 teams, MLB has 30. In theory, this means we really only used the top 80% of pitchers anyway. The remaining 20% is the long list of FA pitchers you see on the site now. Like Sean said, I don't see a concern for running out of BF. 
> 
> Some basic math/algebra which will hopefully put this issue to rest permanently:
> 
> pseudo-BF formula:  BF = 3 * IP + H + W
> WHIP = ( W + H ) / IP
> BF formula using WHIP:  BF = 3 * IP + WHIP * IP = (3 + WHIP) * IP
> 
> Let's assume that we've got an IBL team that starts the season with the same number of MLB innings on their team as is needed to pitch the IBL season (approximately 1450).  How "unlucky" does this team have to be to run out of BF-usage?  Let's use WHIP as the measure, since it is easy way to visualize the part of the equation that we care about (H + W).
> 
> IBL "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team:  BF = (3 + WHIP) * IP = 4.3 * 1450 = 6235 BF
> 
> so, how bad would the "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team have to pitch to run out of BF?
> max usage BF = BF * 1.333 = 6235 * 1.333 = 8313 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed to result in max usage = (8313 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 IP = 2.73 WHIP (!)
> 
> OK, so what about a IBL team that went into the season with less MLB innings than it needs?
> 
> 90% innings (1305), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1305 = 5611 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 7480 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed = (7480 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 2.15 WHIP
> 
> 80% innings (1160), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1160 = 4988 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 6649 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed = (6649 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 1.58 WHIP
> 
> 
> The worst pitching staff in the IBL last year didn't have a 1.58 WHIP, I don't see a problem here.
> 
> Sean
 		 	   		  
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