[IBL] comments on mid-season ballot

[Noel Steere]

Mike:  My initial thought was to point out that we only card 20IP+ pitchers, but I have a feeling the extra IP from the six extra teams overwhelms that. :-)

Sean:  That analysis doesn't take into account the new fatigue rules.  If you keep having to remove pitchers due to fatigue in a blowout, you'll eventually run out.  I suppose we can get more acquainted with the position player as pitcher cards (specialized cards for position players who actually pitched!)

Fleshing this out a bit, at 1.3 WHIP actual, that's 4.3 BF/IP * 9 = 38.7 BF.  Let's make it an even 39 BF for a 9 inning game.

Starter BF is between 25 and 30?  (Played with COU a couple of weeks ago; kinda ballparking it)

That leaves between 14 and 9 BF.  I guess that's achievable.

What if the pitcher doesn't make it past the 4th, and it's a blowout?  That's 15 outs to go, with an extra BR per inning, so 20 BF for the bullpen.

I guess here's where you want a swing man with a double-digit BF, which is usually a starter (they do all have reliever ratings, correct?). Makes sense.

OK, I think I've convinced myself this should be OK.  Unless you build your bullpen with all short relievers you should be able to manage things in a way where you won't be forced to use your last fatigued pitcher for the last 3 innings.

Noel

Sent from my iPhone

> On Jul 26, 2014, at 11:15 AM, Sean Sweda <sweda at ibl.org> wrote:
> 
> 
>> On Jul 26, 2014, at 10:40 AM, Mike Monostra wrote:
>> 
>> In defense of the actual number/quality of pitchers used, also remember this: We only have 24 teams, MLB has 30. In theory, this means we really only used the top 80% of pitchers anyway. The remaining 20% is the long list of FA pitchers you see on the site now. Like Sean said, I don't see a concern for running out of BF.
> 
> Some basic math/algebra which will hopefully put this issue to rest permanently:
> 
> pseudo-BF formula:  BF = 3 * IP + H + W
> WHIP = ( W + H ) / IP
> BF formula using WHIP:  BF = 3 * IP + WHIP * IP = (3 + WHIP) * IP
> 
> Let's assume that we've got an IBL team that starts the season with the same number of MLB innings on their team as is needed to pitch the IBL season (approximately 1450).  How "unlucky" does this team have to be to run out of BF-usage?  Let's use WHIP as the measure, since it is easy way to visualize the part of the equation that we care about (H + W).
> 
> IBL "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team:  BF = (3 + WHIP) * IP = 4.3 * 1450 = 6235 BF
> 
> so, how bad would the "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team have to pitch to run out of BF?
> max usage BF = BF * 1.333 = 6235 * 1.333 = 8313 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed to result in max usage = (8313 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 IP = 2.73 WHIP (!)
> 
> OK, so what about a IBL team that went into the season with less MLB innings than it needs?
> 
> 90% innings (1305), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1305 = 5611 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 7480 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed = (7480 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 2.15 WHIP
> 
> 80% innings (1160), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1160 = 4988 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 6649 BF
> "bad luck" WHIP needed = (6649 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 1.58 WHIP
> 
> 
> The worst pitching staff in the IBL last year didn't have a 1.58 WHIP, I don't see a problem here.
> 
> Sean