[IBL] Newsletter - August 15, 2024

[Paul Schneider]

Here is some data on OF. I took the last five years of players who have had
at least one season of 200+ innings in either LF/RF. Note that this
includes some players who are rookies this year (and have not had time
perhaps to move around), as well as players that were at the end of the
line in 2020, and perhaps HAD played multiple positions, but in their last
year, perhaps did not), so take it with a grain of salt.

There were 261 such players. Of those players, 84 have played only LF, 75
played only RF, 102 played at least one season of both. This does not
include players who may have played CF, so there are a few cases of CF/RF
only or LF/CF only that are only listed at one position.

My quick observations...

   - The list of players who have played both LF/RF are dominated heavily
   by platoon type players/4th OF types, often poor defenders, When I eyeball
   the list, I don't see players with unique skills to play both, but rather,
   played both because of their roles on their teams. If Jordan Luplow can
   play both OF positions, do we believe that Fernando Tatis couldn't?
   - Of the players who played LF only, what stands out are a lot of poor
   arms, as you would expect.  My interpretation is not that they cannot play
   RF, but that their arms make it less than ideal, so the MLB teams are
   putting them at a position to maximize their skills.  But, if there was a
   need, does that mean they couldn't? I get that there are a couple of DH
   types (Schwarber/JD Martinez), but would our arm ratings give IBL teams
   incentive to NOT put them out there? We see that with the D-Backs and
   Corbin Carroll....who is playing a lot of RF despite a below average (but
   better this year) arm.
   - Since Nolan Jones was mentioned, I noted that he IS a player that has
   played seasons at both RF and LF. He did not play both this past year
   because his MLB team needed him there in that season.

Others may have other conclusions, but since someone asked for data and I
had a few minutes, I thought I would share. Here is the complete list if
you are interested.

LF only RF only Both
Aaron Hicks Aaron Judge Adam Duvall
Abraham Almonte Adam Eaton Adam Frazier
AJ Pollock Adam Engel Alec Burleson
Akil Baddoo Adolis García Alex Call
Aledmys Díaz Albert Almora Jr. Alex Kirilloff
Alex Dickerson Avisaíl García Alex Verdugo
Alex Gordon Bradley Zimmer
Andrew McCutchen
Andrew Benintendi Brett Phillips Andrew Vaughn
Anthony Alford Brian Anderson
Anthony Santander
Austin Meadows Brian Goodwin Aristides Aquino
Blake Sabol Bryce Harper Austin Hays
Brad Miller Cal Mitchell Austin Slater
Brandon Marsh Cavan Biggio Ben Gamel
Brandon Nimmo Charlie Blackmon Billy McKinney
Brett Gardner Cody Bellinger
Brendan Donovan
Bryan Reynolds Cole Tucker Brent Rooker
Bubba Thompson Conner Capel
Bryan De La Cruz
Chris Taylor Darin Ruf Chad Pinder
Christian Yelich Daz Cameron
Chas McCormick
Christin Stewart Dexter Fowler Clint Frazier
Colton Cowser Dominic Fletcher Connor Joe
Corey Dickerson Drew Waters Corbin Carroll
Corey Julks Fernando Tatis Jr. Dairon Blanco
Cristian Pache Garrett Cooper Daulton Varsho
David Dahl Gavin Sheets David Peralta
Davis Schneider George Springer DJ Stewart
Dominic Smith Giancarlo Stanton
Dominic Canzone
Eli White Gregory Polanco Dylan Carlson
Eloy Jiménez Henry Davis Dylan Moore
Eric Haase Hunter Dozier Eddie Rosario
Esteury Ruiz Hunter Goodman Edward Olivares
Evan Carter Hunter Renfroe
Franchy Cordero
Everson Pereira Jace Peterson Harold Ramírez
Ezequiel Duran Jackie Bradley Jr. Jack Suwinski
Gavin Lux Jared Walsh
Jackson Chourio
Greg Allen Jason Heyward Jake Bauers
Heliot Ramos Jonny DeLuca Jake Cave
Ian Happ Jordan Walker Jake Fraley
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Jose Rojas Jake McCarthy
J.D. Martinez Josh Lowe Jarred Kelenic
Jake Alu Josh Naylor Jeff McNeil
James Wood Josh Reddick Jesús Sánchez
Jarren Duran Josh Rojas Jo Adell
Jason Martin Juan Lagares Joc Pederson
Jesse Winker Kerry Carpenter Joey Gallo
JJ Bleday Kyle Isbel Jordan Luplow
Joey Loperfido Lawrence Butler Jorge Soler
Jon Berti Leury García José Azocar
Jordan Beck Matt Joyce Joshua Palacios
José Marmolejos Max Kepler Juan Soto
Josh Smith Michael Toglia Jurickson Profar
Juan Yepez Mike Yastrzemski Kevin Pillar
Justin Upton Mookie Betts Kole Calhoun
Ka'ai Tom Nelson Velázquez Kris Bryant
Kyle Schwarber Nick Castellanos Kyle Garlick
Kyle Stowers Nick Markakis Kyle Tucker
Lewis Brinson Nomar Mazara
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Oscar Colás Lane Thomas
Luke Williams Oscar Gonzalez Lars Nootbaar
Marcell Ozuna Pavin Smith Luis González
Masataka Yoshida Ramón Laureano Luke Raley
Mauricio Dubón Ronald Acuña Jr. Manuel Margot
Michael Brantley Ryan O'Hearn Mark Canha
Miguel Vargas Sal Frelick Matt Vierling
Nick Gordon Seiya Suzuki Matt Wallner
Nick Solak Starling Marte
Michael Conforto
Phil Gosselin Stephen Piscotty Mickey Moniak
Riley Greene Tommy Edman Miguel Andujar
Ryan Mountcastle Travis Demeritte Mike Tauchman
Sam Hilliard Trey Cabbage Mitch Haniger
Shed Long Jr. Wenceel Pérez MJ Melendez
Shogo Akiyama Wil Myers Nolan Jones
Spencer Steer Will Brennan Óscar Mercado
Steven Kwan Wilyer Abreu
Oswaldo Cabrera
Stone Garrett Rafael Ortega
Tim Locastro Raimel Tapia
TJ Friedl Randal Grichuk
Tony Kemp
Randy Arozarena
Tucupita Marcano
Richie Palacios
Willie Calhoun Rob Refsnyder
Wyatt Langford
Robbie Grossman
Yadiel Hernandez
Ryan McKenna
Yonathan Daza Sam Haggerty
Yordan Alvarez Sean Bouchard
Seth Brown
Stuart Fairchild
Taylor Trammell
Taylor Ward

Teoscar Hernández
Tommy Pham

Travis Jankowski
Trayce Thompson
Trevor Larnach
Tyler Naquin
Tyler O'Neill
Tyrone Taylor
Victor Reyes
Whit Merrifield
Will Benson
Willi Castro
Zach McKinstry
84 75 102



On Fri, Aug 23, 2024 at 8:46 PM Mike Monostra via Members <
members at lists.ibl.org> wrote:

> A few thoughts from me:
>
> 2024-03 - I think this was mentioned by someone already, but I would
> support this if the rule was you had to remove a pitcher when they pitched
> 9 BF past the BF number listed on the pitcher's card. As it is, I think it
> leads to potential issues with early fatigue as others have mentioned.
>
> 2024-05 - Definitely supports this, the 18 BF cut-off much better aligns
> with today's pitching usage than the current 5 inning rule.
>
> 2024-07 - I'm just not sold on this. This is just one example, but Nick
> Castellanos has started 3 games in LF over the last 5 years. Kyle Schwarber
> hasn't played RF since 2015. (Yeah, I know, awful defenders, but those are
> just two guys that popped into my Phillies riddled mind). I'd love to see
> data on how many guys actively start both positions.
>
> 2024-09 - I understand the rationale behind this decision, I just don't
> see this encouraging more teams to try to win.
>
> 2024-10 - I like the idea of IR, but I believe this is too onerous. I
> doubt I'd use it because of the uncarded player  provision/prohibition on
> releasing the player. I think I'd much rather have those struck, but extend
> the amount of time a player has to be IR to 10-12 weeks so it's only used
> for the super long term injuries.
>
> NJR Mike
>
> On Fri, Aug 23, 2024 at 3:09 PM Sean Sweda <sweda at ibl.org> wrote:
>
>> comments on selected issues:
>>
>>
>> 2024-02 / injury reduction
>>
>> If you want randomness with injuries then you have to accept that some
>> players will go over their MLB injury day totals.  There are multiple ways
>> to get good injury luck (you can never get hit by a wild play or roll one
>> of the non-100% outcomes) whereas the only way to go over is to get hit
>> multiple times.  I have a spreadsheet where I broke down the injury day
>> totals from a full IBL season from a few seasons ago if anybody wants to
>> see confirmation that players are more likely to go under their injury
>> days.  Fundamentally, anything you do to mitigate players going over that
>> doesn’t shift those days to players who avoided injury just results in
>> fewer days missed overall.  Maybe that is the goal since everyone hates
>> injuries, but let’s be clear that this change would make the current
>> randomness even less likely to reproduce MLB results.
>>
>> One final point, durability is a skill and has value.  When you mitigate
>> injuries you’re also reducing the value that a durable player provides over
>> one with injury issues.
>>
>>
>> 2024-03 / limit use of fatigued pitcher
>>
>> There are two ways a pitcher fatigues, hitting their max BF or giving up
>> 5+ runs.  As others have commented, this proposal doesn’t really handle the
>> latter case properly.  If your SP gets shelled early it seems unfair to be
>> forced to remove him before he’s even reached the max BF on the card.
>>
>>
>> 2024-04 / drop max usage to 125%
>>
>> I believe the original Constitution allowed player retention up to 150%
>> (with 200% the overall limit), so this has already been changed once
>> before.  One thing to consider is that the tighter the bands are for usage
>> the more it matters who has the very best players.  I don’t know what the
>> best settings are for optimal competitive balance, but we don’t currently
>> seem to be in a situation where part-timers being over-used is a key to
>> winning.
>>
>>
>> 2024-07 / corner OF starts
>>
>> Very few MLB players have been played exclusively at one corner OF
>> position in their career because of an actual limitation of their own
>> ability.  The most obvious reason is a player with a bad arm being limited
>> to LF, but the game already accounts for this with the +1 adjustment on
>> throws to 3B from RF.  There are obviously lots of players who get moved
>> between LF/RF based on their MLB team's decisions, why shouldn’t IBL teams
>> have the same flexibility?
>>
>>
>> 2024-09 / playoff tier based on wild card winner
>>
>> It appears that there have recently been teams in the hunt for wild card
>> spots that try to avoid making the playoffs.  I’d hope that this rule
>> change would change the calculus so that borderline teams would try to win.
>> We had a similar rule for the covid season (7 teams made the playoffs).
>>
>>
>> 2024-10 / IR
>>
>> It is a bunch of work to implement this so I’m somewhat ambivalent.  I do
>> think the restrictions are sufficient such that it would not be used very
>> often. If you use one of these IR spots you’re locking a player onto your
>> roster (barring an off-season trade) until week 8 of the following season.
>> I suspect an owner who used it whenever possible just for the extra roster
>> spots would come to regret it in short order.
>>
>>
>>
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