[IBL] Playoff Odds - August 16, 2024

[Chris Hartjes]

I have been asked by other owners if this year's playoff situation (with most of the playoff spots appearing to be settled well in advance) is typical. My answer is "no" -- usually one of the wild card spots in each league goes down until the last week. 

I think the biggest lesson I have learned over the years from this experiment is that it is rare for a team to blow a lead of 4-5 games and miss a playoff spot.

(Playoff script grudgingly has MAD closer to .500 but based on Base Runs Scored / Allowed and then adjusted for opponents faced, it thinks I should currently be 51-58)

AC East
SFL 91-71 Win Division: 66.0% Make Playoffs: 97.7%
KAT 89-73 Win Division: 33.9% Make Playoffs: 94.2%
NJR 78-84 Win Division: 0.2% Make Playoffs: 2.2%
RRG 56-106 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

AC Central
WMS 89-73 Win Division: 99.5% Make Playoffs: 99.5%
OXY 75-87 Win Division: 0.4% Make Playoffs: 0.6%
BOW 72-90 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 0.1%
PHI 69-93 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

AC West
MCM 101-61 Win Division: 97.2% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
BUF 91-71 Win Division: 2.8% Make Playoffs: 95.8%
EVE 81-81 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 7.6%
MAD 79-83 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 2.5%

NC East
SLG 102-60 Win Division: 94.7% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
WIS 93-69 Win Division: 5.2% Make Playoffs: 92.6%
SKY 86-76 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 24.8%
SDQ 74-88 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

NC Central
SFP 93-69 Win Division: 55.0% Make Playoffs: 93.0%
SCS 92-70 Win Division: 45.0% Make Playoffs: 89.3%
CAN 76-86 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.2%
NYK 51-111 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

NC West
SEA 94-68 Win Division: 100.0% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
BAL 76-86 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.1%
BFD 73-89 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%
GTY 62-100 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net