[IBL] Playoff Odds - July 24, 2023

[Chris Hartjes]

As part of my work looking at first/second/third order wins, I finally figured out how to adjust the calculated Base Runs based on opposition. Anyway, now the playoff odds uses a team's third order winning percentage when determining outcomes instead of current winning percentage. Third order wins are considered by many to be a better prediction of FUTURE performance. Anyway, here is your weekly dose of IBL-related despair.

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...

Simulating seasons... |################################| 10000/10000

AC East
SFL 87.7 - 74.3 76.0% Div + 16.8% WC = 92.8%
NJR 81.6 - 80.4 14.4% Div + 39.2% WC = 53.6%
KAT 78.9 - 83.1 4.7% Div + 22.5% WC = 27.2%
RRG 78.9 - 82.1 4.9% Div + 21.6% WC = 26.5%

AC Central
WMS 89.1 - 72.9 80.5% Div + 14.3% WC = 94.8%
BOW 83.0 - 79.0 14.8% Div + 44.5% WC = 59.3%
OXY 79.0 - 82.0 3.6% Div + 21.6% WC = 25.3%
PHI 76.5 - 85.5 1.1% Div + 9.7% WC = 10.8%

AC West
MCM 93.5 - 68.5 99.6% Div + 0.2% WC = 99.8%
EVE 75.1 - 85.9 0.2% Div + 5.0% WC = 5.2%
BUF 74.3 - 86.7 0.2% Div + 3.3% WC = 3.5%
MAD 72.3 - 89.7 0.0% Div + 1.3% WC = 1.4%

NC East
SNH 90.5 - 71.5 79.5% Div + 16.0% WC = 95.4%
SKY 83.0 - 79.0 10.9% Div + 43.4% WC = 54.3%
SDQ 81.5 - 80.5 7.7% Div + 33.5% WC = 41.2%
SLG 78.2 - 83.8 1.9% Div + 15.7% WC = 17.7%

NC Central
CAN 89.7 - 72.3 87.9% Div + 6.9% WC = 94.8%
SCS 81.0 - 81.0 8.0% Div + 25.5% WC = 33.5%
NYK 79.0 - 83.0 4.1% Div + 14.4% WC = 18.6%
SFP 65.5 - 96.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC West
SEA 98.2 - 63.8 99.4% Div + 0.6% WC = 99.9%
GTY 81.6 - 79.4 0.6% Div + 34.9% WC = 35.5%
BFD 77.4 - 84.6 0.1% Div + 8.9% WC = 9.0%
BAL 65.3 - 95.7 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%



-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net