[IBL] Playoff Odds!

Chris Hartjes chartjes at littlehart.net
Wed Sep 28 16:51:00 EDT 2016


With some time on my hands I sat down and wrote a playoff odds predictor. Here's what
it does

* looks at the series that are remaining
* simulates each remaining season 10000 times, playing out each series
* uses head-to-head match-ups and determines game wins through comparing random
percentage to matchup percentage
* determines the division winners each simulated season
* determines the wild card teams for each simulated season

Here are the latest odds

COU 99.1% Div + 0.8% WC = 99.9%
TRI 0.9% Div + 62.2% WC = 63.1%
MCM 1.0% Div + 4.9% WC = 5.8%
PHI 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
WMS 0.0% Div + 78.7% WC = 78.7%
BAL 40.6% Div + 23.2% WC = 63.8%
POR 55.0% Div + 24.1% WC = 79.1%
SKY 2.1% Div + 4.7% WC = 6.8%
MNM 97.9% Div + 0.8% WC = 98.7%
SFP 48.1% Div + 21.8% WC = 69.9%
CAN 51.9% Div + 23.5% WC = 75.4%
GTY 53.8% Div + 46.2% WC = 100.0%
MAD 3.4% Div + 6.1% WC = 9.5%
SEA 0.0% Div + 49.2% WC = 49.3%
ODM 46.2% Div + 53.7% WC = 99.9%

I'll send this out after every week here on out.

--
Chris



More information about the Members mailing list