[IBL] AC Wilcard outlook reply

[Doug Palmer]

We don't want minds needlessly inquiring, let's take a look.....

Regarding the divisional hopes between Santa Fe (SFP) and Canberra (CAN),
due to a rainout earlier, SFP has 31 games remaining to the 30 left for
CAN.  That one extra game is against Havana (HAV), against which, SFP has a
winning record (7-4).

In looking at the remaining schedule, and how they've played against those
opponents thus far...

CAN should go 18-12 (CAN is 63-45 against their upcoming opponents thus far)
SFP should go 17-14 (SFP is 58-51 against their upcoming opponents thus far)

This would leave SFP with 77 wins and a full 5 games out of first.  Neither
SFP nor CAN face another division leader or a team that would fall into the
"Leader Coasting" scenario that I put forth in my previous email.  That
being said, SFP could benefit during the last week if CAN has
mathematically clinched the division and sits regulars.

Neither team has significant injuries.  In fact, CAN gets CHN Sale back in
Week 23, which will help his rotation.

It's an uphill road for SFP, that's for sure.  But with 6 games ending the
season against CAN, so long as Santa Fe keeps within shouting distance,
anything is certainly possible.  For the optimists out there, CAN has 4
series against teams that they are either 5-4 or 4-5 against this year.
Those series could go either way and it's not outside the realm of
possibility that CAN could go 4-8 over that stretch rather than the
predicted 6-6.

Bottom line, for SFP to have hope, I'd say that they need to win 2 of 3 vs
SEA in Week 24, do the same (or sweep) SKY in Week 24, and do no worse than
.500 vs EDG and SDQ.

Remember, don't predict and drive.

Doug-strodamous

On Fri, Oct 2, 2015 at 1:52 PM, sfp at lemerithew.com sfp at lemerithew.com <
sfp at lemerithew.com> wrote:

> Enjoying the AC Wildcard predictions. Now, for the 64-cent question. Does
> SFP have what it takes to catch up with CAN in the next few weeks? More
> importantly, will the P-Dogs stay close enough to have a chance at taking
> the division title the final week of the season, when CAN and SFP play
> head-to-head for bragging rights?
>
>
> Inquiring minds are flabbergasted at the implications...
>
>
> Larry
>
> SFP
>
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