[IBL] SFP 2015 outlook

[Larry Merithew]

We finally managed to corner the Bear long enough to get his thoughts on 
the past season, and his views for the latest edition of the club.

*2014 in review*

The Prairie Dogs had a roller coaster year in 2014. They began looking 
like they'd have trouble winning 30 games in the early part of the 
season, and finished with so many minor aches and pains that they 
couldn't put together a consistent lineup at the end. In between, they 
proved they had the ability to play at or near .500 ball. The pitching 
staff as a whole finished near the middle of the pack, and that was 
without star closer Neftali Feliz. Offensively, they made some progress, 
but frequently ran themselves out of rallies by being too aggressive on 
the basepaths.

*2015 thoughts by position*

/Catcher/

Sal Perez holds down the starting spot after his first full season as 
the starter. His only real shortcoming is a tendency to let pitches get 
by him behind the plate. Michael McKenry and newcomer J.R. Murphy will 
be available when Perez needs a rest. That assumes McKenry is still with 
the team come Opening Day. He's been mentioned in some trade rumors, and 
may be gone before long.

/Infield/

There are various kinds of questions in this department. Adrian Gonzalez 
will get the bulk of playing time at 1B, but is showing signs of having 
trouble hitting lefties. Gaby Sanchez may platoon with him, but it's 
uncertain if Sanchez will stay around after this year. Management is 
losing faith and patience with Justin Smoak. At the other corner, Martin 
Prado has held the position for the past few years. Prado is one of the 
more consistent performers in the league, and can be counted on to 
provide 10-12 HR every year. Cody Asche will bid for more playing time, 
although the team isn't sure if his future is at 3B or 1B. Danny 
Espinosa has the inside track at 2B, now that Dustin Ackley is a 
full-time outfielder. Unfortunately, that creates a major hole in the 
batting order, as Espinosa hasn't shown he deserves to return to the 
position on a full-time basis. Jace Peterson may be the future here, but 
he's 2 or 3 years away. Phil Gosselin will get a chance to unseat 
Espinosa, with Prado likely being a late-inning defensive replacement. 
At SS, rookie Jose Ramirez offers speed, Brad Miller provides a 
semblence of power, and Ruben Tejada offers the most experience, 
although he's only 26.

/Outfield/

Ackley, as mentioned, becomes the full-time LF. He's an adequate bat, 
but doesn't stand out in any particular area. B.J. Upton holds forth in 
center, but will be pressed to hold onto the job. Upton offers perhaps 
the most speed on the team, with once-in-a-while power, but has trouble 
getting on base. His glove is no great shakes, either. In right, 
versatile Brock Holt and still-young (24) Avisail Garcia will likely 
platoon, at least for this year. Holt can also fill in everywhere except 
pitcher and catcher if the need arises. Joc Pederson is projected as the 
long-term replacement for Upton, while Ezequiel Carrera will battle for 
the position in the short-term. Dan Robertson is also in the mix and 
will try to stick with the team as the primary reserve OF.

/Rotation/

Felix Hernandez is still the unquestioned ace of the staff, despite 
losing a league-high 23 games last year. Half his losses could easily be 
traced to either a lack of offensive support, or a late-inning bullpen 
collapse. Doug Fister is the greybeard of the rotation, even though he's 
only 31. He'll take the #2 slot after leading the staff with 13 wins. 
Danny Duffy will finally get a chance to show what he can do over a full 
season, while Collin McHugh will be given a chance for a spot in the 
rotation as well.

/5th starter/long relief/

The #5 slot will be a revolving door involving Hector Santiago, David 
Phelps, Jesse Chavez and Anthony DeSclafani. Whoever doesn't start in a 
given series will be expected to be ready for a long-relief appearance. 
Duffy could also take his turn here if he doesn't prove ready for a 
full-time turn in the rotation.

/Bullpen/

Pat Neshek and Fernando Abad will be the main setup men in the 8th. Joba 
Chamberlain, Mike Morin and Jeff Beliveau will fill in where needed.

/Closer/

Neftali Feliz missed 2014 with injuries. He'll be an immediate upgrade 
to the staff if he's healthy. Nervous prayers if he isn't.

*Outlook*

Just like last year, expect the pitching to keep the Dogs close most 
games, with a chance to win their share. Whether those chances translate 
into actual wins still depends on whether the bats ever show signs of 
becoming consistent. With Upton and Espinosa in the lineup, opponents 
can continue to look forward to a chance to "rest" their starters during 
the game. Conference champions? not this year. Division winner/wild 
card? if they pull off a decent in-season upgrade, maybe. Constant 
annoyance to everyone else fighting for a playoff spot? definitely.

Larry
SFP


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