[IBL] comments on mid-season ballot

[Sean Sweda]

On Jul 26, 2014, at 10:40 AM, Mike Monostra wrote:

> In defense of the actual number/quality of pitchers used, also remember this: We only have 24 teams, MLB has 30. In theory, this means we really only used the top 80% of pitchers anyway. The remaining 20% is the long list of FA pitchers you see on the site now. Like Sean said, I don't see a concern for running out of BF. 

Some basic math/algebra which will hopefully put this issue to rest permanently:

pseudo-BF formula:  BF = 3 * IP + H + W
WHIP = ( W + H ) / IP
BF formula using WHIP:  BF = 3 * IP + WHIP * IP = (3 + WHIP) * IP

Let's assume that we've got an IBL team that starts the season with the same number of MLB innings on their team as is needed to pitch the IBL season (approximately 1450).  How "unlucky" does this team have to be to run out of BF-usage?  Let's use WHIP as the measure, since it is easy way to visualize the part of the equation that we care about (H + W).

IBL "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team:  BF = (3 + WHIP) * IP = 4.3 * 1450 = 6235 BF

so, how bad would the "true-talent" 1.3 WHIP team have to pitch to run out of BF?
max usage BF = BF * 1.333 = 6235 * 1.333 = 8313 BF
"bad luck" WHIP needed to result in max usage = (8313 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 IP = 2.73 WHIP (!)

OK, so what about a IBL team that went into the season with less MLB innings than it needs?

90% innings (1305), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1305 = 5611 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 7480 BF
"bad luck" WHIP needed = (7480 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 2.15 WHIP

80% innings (1160), "true talent" 1.3 WHIP, BF = 4.3 * 1160 = 4988 BF * 1.333 for max usage = 6649 BF
"bad luck" WHIP needed = (6649 BF - 3 * 1450 IP) / 1450 = 1.58 WHIP


The worst pitching staff in the IBL last year didn't have a 1.58 WHIP, I don't see a problem here.

Sean