[IBL] Playoff Predictions Are Back!

[Chris Hartjes]

Hello friends. As we are at the halfway point of the season I thought it was time to torment ourselves (or maybe it's only me) and share the results of my Python playoff prediction script.

As a refresher it does the following:

* looks at your team's current record
* figures out how many runs you would've scored or allowed based on calculating Base Runs
* adjusts your Base Runs Scored / Allowed for your opposition
* plays out the rest of the season X times (I usually pick 10000)

The script knows nothing about your actual players and assumes your scored and allowed rates stay pretty much the same. We all know the impact injuries and trades can have on teams but I am not smart enough to figure out how to take into account actual team skill in this script.

While it shows trends for your team, I wouldn't advise making sweeping changes based on it's output. I mean, I used it as a guide to figure out if I had a playoff team and then make trades accordingly.

Anyway, here is the results. The record for your team is its average win-loss record during the simulation.

AC East
SFL 98-64 Win Division: 83.8% Make Playoffs: 99.9%
KAT 92-70 Win Division: 16.2% Make Playoffs: 97.8%
NJR 71-91 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.3%
RRG 58-104 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

AC Central
WMS 89-73 Win Division: 98.5% Make Playoffs: 98.7%
OXY 74-88 Win Division: 0.7% Make Playoffs: 2.4%
PHI 73-89 Win Division: 0.6% Make Playoffs: 1.4%
BOW 72-90 Win Division: 0.2% Make Playoffs: 0.8%

AC West
MCM 101-61 Win Division: 99.6% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
BUF 85-77 Win Division: 0.3% Make Playoffs: 63.7%
EVE 81-81 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 29.4%
MAD 77-85 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 5.7%

NC East
SLG 98-64 Win Division: 80.6% Make Playoffs: 99.6%
WIS 91-71 Win Division: 15.4% Make Playoffs: 89.0%
SKY 87-75 Win Division: 4.0% Make Playoffs: 66.8%
SDQ 70-92 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.1%

NC Central
SFP 95-67 Win Division: 93.1% Make Playoffs: 97.5%
SCS 85-77 Win Division: 6.8% Make Playoffs: 36.5%
CAN 75-87 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 1.0%
NYK 54-108 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

NC West
SEA 94-68 Win Division: 97.8% Make Playoffs: 98.4%
BFD 80-82 Win Division: 1.6% Make Playoffs: 7.6%
BAL 78-84 Win Division: 0.7% Make Playoffs: 3.5%
GTY 65-97 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net