[IBL] Playoff Odds -- September 7, 2023

[Chris Hartjes]

Switched to running it Thursday mornings to allow more results to have come in, which can swing the odds this late in the season.

TL;DR
- NC playoff participants are settled
- AC Wild Card race still wide open

I'm most happy that switching to using opponent-adjusted Base Runs predicted the surges of PHI and EVE despite what looked like under-performing won-loss records at the time.

AC East
SFL 71-57 Win Division: 85.5% Make Playoffs: 96.7%
NJR 66-62 Win Division: 14.4% Make Playoffs: 57.8%
RRG 63-65 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 2.3%
KAT 56-66 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.1%

AC Central
WMS 73-55 Win Division: 87.2% Make Playoffs: 98.6%
BOW 67-61 Win Division: 9.8% Make Playoffs: 75.6%
PHI 66-62 Win Division: 3.0% Make Playoffs: 38.7%
OXY 56-69 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

AC West
MCM 77-48 Win Division: 99.9% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
EVE 64-64 Win Division: 0.1% Make Playoffs: 30.1%
MAD 53-75 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%
BUF 50-78 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

NC East
SNH 76-52 Win Division: 64.6% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
SKY 74-54 Win Division: 35.4% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
SDQ 62-66 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 6.1%
SLG 58-67 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.1%

NC Central
CAN 73-52 Win Division: 100.0% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
SCS 58-67 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.9%
NYK 55-73 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%
SFP 49-79 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

NC West
SEA 90-38 Win Division: 100.0% Make Playoffs: 100.0%
GTY 66-62 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 92.2%
BFD 59-69 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.7%
BAL 42-83 Win Division: 0.0% Make Playoffs: 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net