[IBL] Fun With Rollbot - Week 5 Edition
Chris Hartjes
chartjes at littlehart.net
Mon May 8 11:19:56 EDT 2023
I've been quiet long enough and it's too early to start sharing playoffs odds, so instead I will punish myself and the rest of the league with "fun facts" about the effects of variance on the IBL.
Now, this is also a reminder that we are playing a SIMULATION and expecting your team to produce the same exact results as the cards is how you end up lighting your cards on fire in your backyard fire pit after the last out of your season has happened. Not that I have done that. I usually wait until the following weekend.
In doing this sort of stuff I am looking for SIGNAL inside the NOISE that is generated by your team playing in the IBL. Early on, it has become clear that a major contributor to my team's really poor performance has been poor defence, which is not something that can be easily corrected in-season and defence is very very difficult to predict in advance. It's not great to sigh to yourself every time a range play comes up when you are in the field.
But still, I have played soooooo many games over the years to not look at RESULTS and think "something feels off and I need to look at the stats to confirm some things".
Remember, Rollbot doesn't hate you -- it hates EVERYONE.
Juan Soto at home in 2023
SD Soto 17 54 5 7 3 1 0 0 20 11 1 0 .130 .365 .148
Juan Soto on the road in 2023
SD Soto 13 41 9 12 8 2 0 2 18 10 0 0 .293 .508 .488
Yes, that is a +500 OBP on the road.
Vladdy Guerrero at home in 2023
TOR Guerrero 17 66 5 10 6 1 0 2 7 14 0 1 .152 .233 .258
Vladdy Guerrero on the road in 2023
TOR Guerrero 13 52 4 11 6 2 0 2 3 17 0 0 .212 .255 .365
Monrovia at home 5-12
Monrovia on the road 7-10
--
Chris Hartjes
chartjes at littlehart.net
More information about the Members
mailing list