[IBL] Fun With Rollbot - Week 5 Edition

[Chris Hartjes]

I've been quiet long enough and it's too early to start sharing playoffs odds, so instead I will punish myself and the rest of the league with "fun facts" about the effects of variance on the IBL.

Now, this is also a reminder that we are playing a SIMULATION and expecting your team to produce the same exact results as the cards is how you end up lighting your cards on fire in your backyard fire pit after the last out of your season has happened. Not that I have done that. I usually wait until the following weekend.

In doing this sort of stuff I am looking for SIGNAL inside the NOISE that is generated by your team playing in the IBL. Early on, it has become clear that a major contributor to my team's really poor performance has been poor defence, which is not something that can be easily corrected in-season and defence is very very difficult to predict in advance. It's not great to sigh to yourself every time a range play comes up when you are in the field.

But still, I have played soooooo many games over the years to not look at RESULTS and think "something feels off and I need to look at the stats to confirm some things". 

Remember, Rollbot doesn't hate you -- it hates EVERYONE.

Juan Soto at home in 2023

SD  Soto           17  54   5   7   3   1   0   0  20  11   1  0 .130 .365 .148

Juan Soto on the road in 2023

SD  Soto           13  41   9  12   8   2   0   2  18  10   0  0 .293 .508 .488

Yes, that is a +500 OBP on the road.

Vladdy Guerrero at home in 2023

TOR Guerrero       17  66   5  10   6   1   0   2   7  14   0  1 .152 .233 .258


Vladdy Guerrero on the road in 2023

TOR Guerrero       13  52   4  11   6   2   0   2   3  17   0  0 .212 .255 .365

Monrovia at home 5-12
Monrovia on the road 7-10

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net