[IBL] Playoff Odds - August 9, 2023

[Chris Hartjes]

The simulator currently sees the AC Central title race as a coin flip but with both teams having equal chance of making the playoffs.

Are the Phantasm going to look at their current odds and decide to go for it? I sure hope so. I don't want people to necessarily make team-altering decisions based on a simulation that knows nothing about your roster or your managerial tendencies. The simulator highlights what an advantage teams that are in first place in their divisions have and how hard it can be to catch them. Never forget when Rusty took over DET as caretaker and they had an improbable run into the playoffs.

Flags fly forever.

BOW +19.7%
WMS -15.1%
OXY -10.6%

AC East
SFL 94.5 - 67.5 93.5% Div + 6.4% WC = 99.9%
NJR 86.1 - 75.9 6.4% Div + 79.2% WC = 85.7%
RRG 77.3 - 84.7 0.1% Div + 8.5% WC = 8.5%
KAT 72.8 - 89.2 0.0% Div + 1.0% WC = 1.0%

AC Central
BOW 85.9 - 76.1 50.1% Div + 29.2% WC = 79.3%
WMS 85.4 - 76.6 37.4% Div + 40.8% WC = 78.1%
PHI 81.7 - 80.3 12.2% Div + 25.6% WC = 37.7%
OXY 74.6 - 87.4 0.4% Div + 2.6% WC = 2.9%

AC West
MCM 100.7 - 61.3 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
EVE 77.6 - 84.4 0.0% Div + 6.8% WC = 6.8%
MAD 67.7 - 94.3 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
BUF 67.7 - 94.3 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC East
SNH 97.9 - 64.1 95.1% Div + 4.9% WC = 100.0%
SKY 88.2 - 72.8 4.9% Div + 89.7% WC = 94.6%
SDQ 77.7 - 84.3 0.0% Div + 10.2% WC = 10.3%
SLG 73.8 - 88.2 0.0% Div + 1.3% WC = 1.3%

NC Central
CAN 95.6 - 65.4 99.8% Div + 0.1% WC = 99.9%
SCS 76.8 - 85.2 0.1% Div + 6.7% WC = 6.9%
NYK 75.9 - 86.1 0.1% Div + 3.9% WC = 4.0%
SFP 63.0 - 99.0 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC West
SEA 104.3 - 57.7 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
GTY 84.5 - 77.5 0.0% Div + 72.0% WC = 72.1%
BFD 78.7 - 83.3 0.0% Div + 11.0% WC = 11.0%
BAL 54.7 - 107.3 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net