[IBL] Playoff Odds - September 14, 2022

[Chris Hartjes]

DID YOU KNOW that there have been 25 trades this year in the IBL from April 1 until today? That is down from 30 during the same time period last year. How do I know this? In order to do the playoff odds I use a copy of the Postgres database that we store just about everything IBL-related in and can run SQL queries against it.

Earlier this season I added a page to the IBL web site that tracks all "player movement" for the past two weeks. You can find that page at https://www.ibl.org/movement. Now that I am tracking each individual player's transactions throughout the season I plan on adding a page where you can see, for example, how many times a player got sent down to the minors. I might also add a page that shows transactions for a specific team.

Expected matchups based on highest predicted odds with the assumption that the team with the best record will take on the winner of the wild card series.

AC Playoffs
MCM vs. (PHI vs. OXY)
WMS vs. NJR

NC Playoffs
SLG vs. (SDQ vs. SEA)
NYK vs. GTY

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...

Simulating seasons... |################################| 10000/10000

AC East
NJR 82.6 - 79.4 55.4% Div + 17.2% WC = 72.6%
SFL 81.6 - 80.4 36.0% Div + 21.8% WC = 57.8%
KAT 78.5 - 81.5 8.6% Div + 9.9% WC = 18.6%
RRG 60.1 - 100.9 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
WMS 92.8 - 68.2 96.0% Div + 4.0% WC = 100.0%
PHI 85.0 - 77.0 3.5% Div + 85.2% WC = 88.7%
OXY 81.7 - 80.3 0.5% Div + 51.8% WC = 52.3%
BOW 71.7 - 90.3 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1%

AC West
MCM 105.7 - 54.3 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
POR 76.7 - 85.3 0.0% Div + 3.9% WC = 3.9%
MAD 76.4 - 85.6 0.0% Div + 3.4% WC = 3.4%
EVE 76.2 - 85.8 0.0% Div + 2.8% WC = 2.8%

NC East
SLG 105.9 - 56.1 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
SDQ 90.2 - 71.8 0.0% Div + 98.3% WC = 98.3%
SKY 81.2 - 80.8 0.0% Div + 16.6% WC = 16.6%
SNH 64.4 - 97.6 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC Central
NYK 98.0 - 64.0 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
SCS 78.9 - 83.1 0.0% Div + 4.8% WC = 4.8%
CAN 78.0 - 84.0 0.0% Div + 3.0% WC = 3.0%
SFP 77.4 - 84.6 0.0% Div + 1.3% WC = 1.3%

NC West
GTY 92.1 - 69.9 90.9% Div + 8.6% WC = 99.5%
SEA 85.9 - 76.1 9.1% Div + 67.2% WC = 76.4%
BAL 63.5 - 98.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
ODM 56.4 - 105.6 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net