[IBL] Playoff Odds - August 31, 2022

[Chris Hartjes]

DID YOU KNOW that back in 2016 the entire AC West was over .500? I had the division lead going into the last week, needing to go 3-3. I went 2-4, ending up a game behind.

MIGGY WATCH:

With a single to left field with 1 out in the bottom of the 5th inning of the 3rd home game, Miggy got his 3000th hit. He later added another single to bring his total to 3001. He now rides off into the sunset with my gratitude as I have other players who will need usage this year and next. He has been a shell of himself since 2017 in MLB when the injuries started piling up but he was the engine of my team's offense for many, many years. I remember discovering him while he was still in the minors with the Marlins and saying to myself "this guy is going to be a star, get him no matter what the price is when he is in our draft." Mind you, I also drafted Ruben Mateo and Delmon Young really high thinking they were stars in the making too. He's been on my team longer than my youngest daughter has been alive...and she turned 17 this year. I'll be packing his home and road jerseys away and will start wearing the charcoal All-Star Game Vlad Guerrero Jr. jersey that is on it's way to me when I play games next year and beyond.

I've had a shitty stretch of lack of success in the IBL (now about to miss the playoffs for the 7th time in 8 years) and in my endless complaining to Sean (I think my team's mascot should be Eeyore) he has reminded me that I need to find other things to be happy about when participating in this league. My wife tells me to either quit this league or shut the hell up about it around her. Miggy's march to get to 3000 gave me something to focus on this year despite my very strong unhappiness with the state of my team

Anyway, here is what Miggy meant to the Madness over the years:

* leads the Madness in 10 offensive categories
* has the IBL's only batting Triple Crown season
* led the league in hits once
* led the league in RBI twice
* led the league in doubles 3 times
* led the league in homers 3 times
* won 3 batting titles
* led the league in OBP twice
* led the league in SLG 4 times
* led the league in OPS 3 times
* led the league in Win Shares twice

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...

Simulating seasons... |################################| 10000/10000

AC East
SFL 83.2 - 78.8 55.4% Div + 18.0% WC = 73.4%
NJR 81.5 - 79.5 25.0% Div + 27.5% WC = 52.6%
KAT 80.6 - 78.4 19.6% Div + 19.3% WC = 38.8%
RRG 61.6 - 99.4 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
WMS 89.6 - 71.4 59.0% Div + 39.4% WC = 98.3%
PHI 88.8 - 73.2 40.0% Div + 57.4% WC = 97.4%
OXY 80.7 - 81.3 1.0% Div + 34.2% WC = 35.2%
BOW 74.1 - 87.9 0.0% Div + 1.5% WC = 1.5%

AC West
MCM 106.3 - 53.7 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
POR 74.4 - 87.6 0.0% Div + 1.6% WC = 1.6%
EVE 74.1 - 87.9 0.0% Div + 0.9% WC = 0.9%
MAD 72.9 - 89.1 0.0% Div + 0.3% WC = 0.3%

NC East
SLG 104.9 - 57.1 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
SDQ 85.5 - 76.5 0.0% Div + 78.6% WC = 78.6%
SKY 76.8 - 85.2 0.0% Div + 4.4% WC = 4.4%
SNH 67.5 - 94.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC Central
NYK 100.5 - 61.5 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
SCS 80.8 - 81.2 0.0% Div + 20.3% WC = 20.3%
SFP 79.9 - 82.1 0.0% Div + 13.3% WC = 13.3%
CAN 77.6 - 84.4 0.0% Div + 5.8% WC = 5.8%

NC West
GTY 91.6 - 70.4 82.7% Div + 15.9% WC = 98.6%
SEA 86.3 - 75.7 17.3% Div + 61.7% WC = 79.0%
BAL 64.1 - 96.9 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
ODM 55.3 - 105.7 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net