[IBL] Playoff Odds - August 24, 2022

[Chris Hartjes]

DID YOU KNOW that Monrovia's Zack Greinke tops the leaderboard in career pitching accomplishments for active players in:

* games started - 476
* innings pitched - 3093.1
* losses (181) but he is third in wins at 189
* hits allowed - 3209 (am I going to be the first team to ever have a hitter with 3000 hits and a pitcher allow 3000 hits?)
* runs allowed - 1551
* earned runs allows - 1456
* home runs allowed - 382

I traded Johnny Damon and got back Greinke and a 4th round pick back in 2006. At the time I got fixated on the idea that having Johnny Damon's great card on my team was a waste because we sucked and it was better to get a good young pitcher to try and make the anchor of my rotation. Zack promptly had a year of not playing as he dealt with anxiety issues and I wondered if I had made a huge mistake. In the end, I think I did well in this trade. Unlike Miggy (who will not be a Madman after this year) I will get at least one more season with one of the weirdest people to ever play baseball on my roster.

MIGGY'S CHASE FOR 3000:

G1 @ MAD
1b GLF in b7

G2 @ MAD
1B PARK(LCF) in b4

G3 @ MAD
1B LLF in b2
HR LC in b8

G1 @ BOW
1B t4
2B t7

G2 @ BOW
1B t2

G3 @ BOW
1B t5

MIggy now at 2995 career IBL hits. 

./playoff_odds.py --seasons=10000
Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...

Simulating seasons... |################################| 10000/10000

AC East
SFL 85.4 - 76.6 71.6% Div + 17.7% WC = 89.4%
NJR 81.5 - 79.5 16.3% Div + 39.5% WC = 55.8%
KAT 80.5 - 78.5 12.1% Div + 26.0% WC = 38.1%
RRG 61.5 - 99.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
WMS 89.6 - 71.4 57.5% Div + 41.1% WC = 98.5%
PHI 88.9 - 73.1 42.2% Div + 55.8% WC = 98.0%
OXY 78.1 - 83.9 0.3% Div + 14.2% WC = 14.5%
BOW 74.2 - 87.8 0.0% Div + 1.9% WC = 1.9%

AC West
MCM 106.4 - 53.6 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
POR 74.5 - 87.5 0.0% Div + 1.6% WC = 1.6%
MAD 74.1 - 87.9 0.0% Div + 1.2% WC = 1.2%
EVE 73.3 - 88.7 0.0% Div + 0.9% WC = 0.9%

NC East
SLG 102.8 - 59.2 99.7% Div + 0.3% WC = 100.0%
SDQ 88.1 - 73.9 0.3% Div + 91.0% WC = 91.2%
SKY 76.7 - 85.3 0.0% Div + 3.2% WC = 3.2%
SNH 70.2 - 91.8 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC Central
NYK 102.6 - 59.4 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
SCS 81.2 - 80.8 0.0% Div + 22.6% WC = 22.6%
SFP 79.4 - 82.6 0.0% Div + 10.3% WC = 10.3%
CAN 77.6 - 84.4 0.0% Div + 4.7% WC = 4.7%

NC West
GTY 87.8 - 74.2 52.2% Div + 32.9% WC = 85.2%
SEA 86.9 - 75.1 47.8% Div + 35.0% WC = 82.7%
BAL 65.8 - 95.2 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
ODM 51.9 - 109.1 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%


-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net