[IBL] Way Too Early IBL Playoff Predictions

[Chris Hartjes]

Just a reminder of how this projection system works. For each season:

* I adjust things by regressing records towards .500 based on the number of games left in the season for a team
* I further adjust things to give the home team a slight advantage
* It knows nothing about your rosters or the manager running the team
* Your team is never as good as you think it is
* Your team is never as bad as you think it is

The biggest impact on projections this early in the season is the regression factor -- so much baseball is still left to be played! Keep that in mind when you see things like MCM not being projected to win 118 games on average. I have added tracking the "best" and "worst" season for your team in the simulation.

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...


AC East
KAT 84.6 - 77.4 64.9% Div + 5.2% WC = 70.1% Best (105 - 57) | Worst (63 - 99)
SFL 80.9 - 81.1 27.6% Div + 8.9% WC = 36.5% Best (102 - 60) | Worst (62 - 100)
NJR 76.1 - 85.9 7.4% Div + 3.6% WC = 11.0% Best (97 - 65) | Worst (57 - 105)
RRG 65.4 - 96.6 0.1% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.1% Best (83 - 79) | Worst (48 - 114)

AC Central
OXY 93.1 - 68.9 61.3% Div + 34.6% WC = 95.9% Best (112 - 50) | Worst (73 - 89)
BOW 91.3 - 70.7 38.5% Div + 53.7% WC = 92.2% Best (110 - 52) | Worst (72 - 90)
WMS 74.4 - 86.6 0.2% Div + 3.0% WC = 3.2% Best (95 - 67) | Worst (56 - 106)
PHI 65.5 - 95.5 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1% Best (86 - 76) | Worst (46 - 116)

AC West
MCM 100.3 - 61.7 95.1% Div + 4.7% WC = 99.8% Best (119 - 43) | Worst (81 - 81)
MAD 87.7 - 74.3 4.6% Div + 70.1% WC = 74.7% Best (106 - 56) | Worst (67 - 95)
POR 79.7 - 81.3 0.3% Div + 15.3% WC = 15.6% Best (101 - 61) | Worst (60 - 102)
EVE 70.8 - 90.2 0.0% Div + 0.8% WC = 0.8% Best (90 - 72) | Worst (51 - 111)

NC East
SDQ 93.5 - 68.5 98.4% Div + 0.4% WC = 98.8% Best (111 - 51) | Worst (74 - 88)
SNH 76.8 - 85.2 1.5% Div + 6.7% WC = 8.2% Best (100 - 62) | Worst (53 - 109)
SKY 68.8 - 92.2 0.1% Div + 0.3% WC = 0.3% Best (91 - 71) | Worst (49 - 113)
SLG 66.8 - 95.2 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1% Best (86 - 76) | Worst (46 - 116)

NC Central
NYK 91.8 - 70.2 59.1% Div + 29.9% WC = 89.0% Best (112 - 50) | Worst (73 - 89)
SCS 88.1 - 73.9 29.4% Div + 45.2% WC = 74.6% Best (109 - 53) | Worst (69 - 93)
CAN 84.5 - 77.5 11.4% Div + 34.2% WC = 45.5% Best (103 - 59) | Worst (65 - 97)
SFP 72.1 - 89.9 0.1% Div + 1.2% WC = 1.3% Best (93 - 69) | Worst (49 - 113)

NC West
GTY 92.1 - 68.9 60.9% Div + 29.8% WC = 90.8% Best (111 - 51) | Worst (74 - 88)
SEA 90.4 - 70.6 38.4% Div + 44.9% WC = 83.3% Best (111 - 51) | Worst (67 - 95)
BAL 76.8 - 84.2 0.7% Div + 6.7% WC = 7.3% Best (98 - 64) | Worst (57 - 105)
ODM 68.4 - 93.6 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1% Best (89 - 73) | Worst (48 - 114)



-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net