[IBL] Way Too Early Playoff Predictions

[Chris Hartjes]

With a chunk of week 10 games in, the Magic Python Script reveals:

* SFL and KAT back to being in a fight for the AC East
* SFL raised their chances by 33%
* MAD's playoff chances dropped 16%

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...


AC East
SFL 85.9 - 76.1 50.7% Div + 12.5% WC = 63.2%
KAT 85.9 - 76.1 46.1% Div + 14.4% WC = 60.5%
NJR 76.5 - 85.5 3.1% Div + 2.8% WC = 5.9%
RRG 58.6 - 103.4 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
OXY 92.6 - 69.4 54.4% Div + 37.0% WC = 91.5%
BOW 92.1 - 69.9 45.6% Div + 44.3% WC = 89.8%
WMS 75.1 - 85.9 0.1% Div + 2.1% WC = 2.2%
PHI 65.5 - 95.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC West
MCM 105.7 - 56.3 99.5% Div + 0.5% WC = 100.0%
MAD 86.2 - 75.8 0.3% Div + 50.3% WC = 50.6%
POR 84.3 - 76.7 0.2% Div + 35.7% WC = 35.9%
EVE 70.9 - 90.1 0.0% Div + 0.3% WC = 0.3%

NC East
SDQ 93.5 - 68.5 99.8% Div + 0.0% WC = 99.8%
SKY 70.8 - 90.2 0.1% Div + 1.2% WC = 1.3%
SNH 70.7 - 91.3 0.1% Div + 1.1% WC = 1.2%
SLG 68.2 - 93.8 0.0% Div + 0.3% WC = 0.4%

NC Central
NYK 90.6 - 71.4 69.7% Div + 22.2% WC = 91.9%
CAN 84.1 - 77.9 17.7% Div + 39.9% WC = 57.6%
SCS 82.5 - 79.5 11.7% Div + 34.6% WC = 46.4%
SFP 76.1 - 85.9 0.9% Div + 7.3% WC = 8.2%

NC West
GTY 93.7 - 67.3 66.5% Div + 31.2% WC = 97.6%
SEA 90.9 - 70.1 33.5% Div + 58.8% WC = 92.3%
BAL 73.1 - 87.9 0.1% Div + 3.1% WC = 3.2%
ODM 66.3 - 95.7 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1%

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net