[IBL] Way-too-early Playoff Predictions -- Week 10

[Chris Hartjes]

Going into week 10 the Magical Python Script is predicting:

* MCM and SDQ as virtual locks to make the playoffs
* AC Central division winner to be the tightest race
* WC spots in the NC up for grabs (only 1 team with > 50% predicted chance)

Starting to simulate 10000 seasons...


AC East
KAT 86.3 - 75.7 72.8% Div + 4.8% WC = 77.6% Best (105 - 57) | Worst (66 - 96)
SFL 81.3 - 80.7 22.5% Div + 10.6% WC = 33.1% Best (99 - 63) | Worst (63 - 99)
NJR 76.1 - 85.9 4.7% Div + 3.1% WC = 7.8% Best (97 - 65) | Worst (55 - 107)
RRG 60.2 - 101.8 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0% Best (81 - 81) | Worst (42 - 120)

AC Central
OXY 89.6 - 72.4 48.2% Div + 34.1% WC = 82.4% Best (109 - 53) | Worst (72 - 90)
BOW 89.6 - 72.4 51.4% Div + 32.1% WC = 83.5% Best (110 - 52) | Worst (70 - 92)
WMS 74.4 - 86.6 0.4% Div + 2.2% WC = 2.6% Best (91 - 71) | Worst (58 - 104)
PHI 65.7 - 95.3 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0% Best (84 - 78) | Worst (49 - 113)

AC West
MCM 104.0 - 58.0 98.3% Div + 1.7% WC = 100.0% Best (121 - 41) | Worst (85 - 77)
MAD 87.6 - 74.4 1.3% Div + 66.3% WC = 67.6% Best (105 - 57) | Worst (68 - 94)
POR 84.8 - 76.2 0.4% Div + 44.6% WC = 45.0% Best (106 - 56) | Worst (63 - 99)
EVE 70.7 - 90.3 0.0% Div + 0.4% WC = 0.4% Best (90 - 72) | Worst (52 - 110)

NC East
SDQ 93.2 - 68.8 99.5% Div + 0.1% WC = 99.6% Best (112 - 50) | Worst (71 - 91)
SNH 72.4 - 89.6 0.3% Div + 1.6% WC = 1.9% Best (97 - 65) | Worst (54 - 108)
SKY 71.1 - 89.9 0.2% Div + 0.8% WC = 1.0% Best (92 - 70) | Worst (54 - 108)
SLG 66.6 - 95.4 0.0% Div + 0.1% WC = 0.1% Best (86 - 76) | Worst (47 - 115)

NC Central
NYK 89.9 - 72.1 59.6% Div + 26.0% WC = 85.6% Best (107 - 55) | Worst (70 - 92)
CAN 84.6 - 77.4 18.8% Div + 34.0% WC = 52.8% Best (103 - 59) | Worst (65 - 97)
SCS 84.4 - 77.6 19.5% Div + 34.7% WC = 54.2% Best (103 - 59) | Worst (63 - 99)
SFP 77.5 - 84.5 2.1% Div + 8.5% WC = 10.6% Best (99 - 63) | Worst (58 - 104)

NC West
GTY 93.5 - 67.5 61.6% Div + 34.0% WC = 95.7% Best (113 - 49) | Worst (77 - 85)
SEA 91.7 - 69.3 38.0% Div + 53.5% WC = 91.6% Best (111 - 51) | Worst (71 - 91)
BAL 76.0 - 85.0 0.3% Div + 6.2% WC = 6.5% Best (97 - 65) | Worst (57 - 105)
ODM 68.9 - 93.1 0.0% Div + 0.2% WC = 0.2% Best (89 - 73) | Worst (50 - 112)

-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net