[IBL] Fwd: IBL Off Season Ballot - PLEASE RESPOND

[D]

*Excellent, thanks Sean.  I really appreciate the dialogue and analysis.
This will be my last reply on the ballot question, and any last word win
our exchange will be yours.  This is probably one too many, and if I have
already outworn my welcome with you or anyone else on the question, I
apologize. *

> MLB teams are probably good at figuring out which outfielders are
skilled
> enough to play either corner equally well.  But that doesn't necessarily
> mean those who MLB teams play only in LF or RF would also play the other
> equally well.  It could be they limit them to one or the other corner
> because that's where they are best.

I'm sure it is possible that some players exist who cannot play one corner
as well as the other.  My point is that if there were something intrinsic
about the positions that made one more difficult than the other it would
be
observable.

*Unless what is observable in the data reflects selection bias, the part of
my reply selected out. ;)   *

Furthermore, the frequency that MLB teams move players between
corner spots supports the concept that the default expectation is no
difference.

*I don't think MLB teams think there is no difference between moving
a rightfielder to left field and vice versa.  Plenty move freely between
the two positions, and plenty do not.  There are a number of reasons teams
move players between corners, both in-game and as a matter of roster
construction. Certainly some leftfielders and some rightfielders are
versatile enough to play both equally well, and when an MLB team choses to
use a corner OF that way, IBL already captures it.  *

>> There is however an
>> observable differential between defensive performance in CF vs LF/RF,
>> players who play both CF and LF/RF perform better collectively on defense
>> as LF/RF.  So there really are only two outfield "positions" in the true
>> sense of the word, CF and corner OF.
>>
> This makes sense to me, and I think, if I am reading it correctly, that
> it provides some support for giving CFs IBL starts in the corners

Except that CFs will have different defensive ratings in the corners.
That
would be like giving SS additional starts at 3B or 2B.

*The CF argument is a reply to one justification for the proposal, namely
that data shows that defensive skill in corner OF spots is transferable.
If that is true of corner OF, it is also quite likely true of CF moving to
a corner --- good CFs make good, perhaps even very good, corner OFs (and I
think that's what you indicated the data shows).     There are other
rationale for the proposal, but if this is move to have IBL reflect the
transferability of defensive skills in the corners, then the empirical
defensive versatility of CFs should, it could be argued, be recognized
too.  *

*The reason a CF may not have corner OF starts isn't defensive
shortcomings, its the usage decisions and roster construction of MLB teams
in real-life.   If an MLB team has only one good CF, the guy is likely to
play CF fulltime.  If the MLB team does happen to have two players who are
great defensively in CF, they can choose to play one in CF and move one to
a corner and quite likely assume, with support in the data, that the
defense will transfer.  IBL could reflect that for CFs the same way the
proposal does for corners.*

The defensive  ratings in LF/RF are now identical so the starts that are
being added don't
fundamentally alter the player's defensive impact.

*I don't know, this seems like a narrow idea of "defensive impact" in the
context of the IBL ruleset.  Defensive impact in IBL is tied up with start
eligibility.  Players who have versatility in where they can start (both at
which positions and how much at each position) have more defensive impact
given how IBL start and usage rules work together to cabin roster
construction.  Having a corner available as a late inning defensive
replacement is a very different defensive impact, broadly construed, than
having him available to start games (or more games) in the opposite corner,
because the greater availability itself has impacts across the roster.  And
not just with FT left-fielders or right-fielders.  The defensive impact in
the outfield, again broadly construed, of a player with say 30 starts in LF
would expand from 60 starts in LF under the current ruleset to 120 corner
starts under the proposal.  PAs at 133% will still be a limitation, but the
OF eligibility expansion is substantial.    *

*Even if the proposal stops at corner OFs, and even if MLB teams view any
leftfielder as being an equally capable rightfielder, the proposal would,
imo, have a significant impact on player valuation, roster construction,
and start/usage gameplay within the IBL ruleset.  I wrote originally and
persist now because I think those impacts worth exploring.*

> Making it easier on new owners is obviously a totally righteous rationale.

I was merely trying to point out the flip side for those who enjoy the
challenge of roster juggling.  It was a reminder that simplification
benefits less experienced members.

*Agreed.  And I really appreciate the importance of that rationale being
added to the mix of considerations.*

FWIW, as I see it this rule change is a referendum on whether continuing
to
treat LF/RF as distinct positions makes sense and whether eliminating that
distinction would make things more (or less) enjoyable.

*That's a reasonable frame in the abstract, but the change also isn't being
proposed in a vacuum.  It would, imo, represent a material and abrupt shift
in player valuation and roster construction after a season and offseason of
valuing players and constructing rosters for 2020 based upon the existing
ruleset.*

> In any event, if you've read this far, can I ask that the rule proposal
> include asking owners whether to defer implementation for a year if the
> change passes?

I do not believe it is good policy to modify a ballot item after votes
have
already been cast.  If you believe timing is a critical issue vote NO now
and request for it to be voted on again for 2021.

*OK, thanks.  It would be nice then to have had an opportunity to consider
and comment on ballot proposals before the voting is opened.  But I
understand this is a game and more process is most costly -- by far -- to
Rusty and Sean, who already devote a ton of their own time so we all can
play and enjoy IBL, so all good.*

*I look forward to any comments you or others add.  FWIW, as things stand,
I'd vote no.  If the league were given the opportunity to decide when the
rule will be implemented if passed, I'd vote to defer it one year.  If the
proposal fails this year and is brought up again at the same time next year
for immediate implementation, after a season and off-season trading period
played under the existing ruleset, I'll again vote no as the lead-time and
reliance interests will cut the same way.        *

*I hope the comments I've made have been delivered and received
respectfully, and maybe been of some help in exploring the implications of
the proposal for the new owners making their way into IBL.   Thanks Sean,
as always I appreciate your time, expertise, and patience with me!*

*- David   *
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