[IBL] 2019 IBL Wildcard Predictions

[Doug Palmer]

With the IBL Playoffs here, time to check in once again on Willie “Blind
Man” McGuffin at the Heads We Win, Tails You Lose Casino and Massage Parlor
to find out how ol’ Willie SEES the Wildcard series playing out!



In the AC, Portland (POR) and Bowling Green (BOW) face each other in what
promises to be a very close and hard fought series.  During the regular
season, BOW took 7 of the 12 meetings against POR.  Let’s break it down
further

Key Injuries: BOW: None  POR: McCullers and LAA Cole

*BOW Starters vs POR Starters*

BOW ranked #9 overall in pitching, led by Severino, Rodriguez and Keller.
Unfortunately they will be without the services of Zach Wheeler due to
injury.  Hughes and Poyner are the end of game closers.  Only allowing an
average of 4.28 runs per game, BOW is about middle of the road.  The one
thing this pitching staff DOESN’T do is allow home runs.  Only 154 allowed
this year places them almost at the top of that category (MCM only allowed
137).

POR ranked #4 overall in pitching, one of the better squads in the IBL.
Led by Tanaka, Boruki and Nova, its hard to believe that they gave up over
4 runs per game.  Familia and Perez are the apparent closers, although POR
used a menagerie of closers/save men this year.

ADVANTAGE: *POR*

*BOW Hitters vs POR Hitters*

BOW ranked #8 in overall hitting this year, led by the likes of Bellinger,
McCutchen and Acuna.  Yes, a veritable Murderers Row.  Scoring almost 4.9
runs a game, BOW wasn’t necessarily a power team or a speedy team.  Very
well balanced from top to bottom, hardly a weak spot.  Not the kind of
lineup you’ll pitch around.  This is certainly an “A to B” hitting team.

POR ranked #10 in batting, just behind BOW.  Led by Pham, Zobrist and
Franco, another team that didn’t rely on the long ball during the season
(only 260 homers).  But when you’re batting .261, who needs power?  Scoring
4.68 runs per game is nothing to sneeze at, but POR will need all cylinders
popping to best BOW

ADVANTAGE: *BOW*

Prediction:

A very close series that is expected to go the distance.  BOW has the home
field advantage and was dominant there (51-31 record).  POR on the other
hand is a very good road team (46-35) who doesn’t rely on home cooking to
win.  It’s a best of 5 series that will most likely come down to the 5th
game.  The bookies had BOW as a slight favorite heading into the playoffs
with POR.  Don’t bet the house on this one, but Willie is putting his (few)
shekels on Portland (POR) to win the series.





In the NC, the wildcard is between South New Hampshire (SNH) and the
surprise participant, Gettysburg Generals (GTY).  Gettysburg got in by the
skin of their teeth with a win in their final series of the season while
Canberra suffered a meltdown down the stretch and lost their last 9 games.
When these two played this year, it as dead even at 6-6.

Key Injuries: SNH: LAN Hill, MIA Cooper, STL Wainright  GTY: LeMahieu,
Skaggs, Longoria

*SNH Starters vs GTY Starters*

SNH was only the 16th best pitching team in the IBL this year.  They’ll
most likely trot out Clevinger, Mikolas and Bumgarner.  Not a bad trio.
Iglesias and Dyson are the closers.  Allowing almost 4.7 runs per game,
it’s surprising that the team is this far down on the pitching charts.
Looking closer, the algorithm had them winning 5 few games (most likely
attributed to their less than stellar pitching).

GTY was the 10th rated pitching squad in the IBL and Lester, Barria and
Glasnow will be the starters with Watson and Lugo being asked to hold down
the fort late.  Unlike SNH, GTY actually lost 5 more games than they
should’ve based on the algorithm.  Allowing only 4.34 runs per game, it’s
no wonder why GTY is here.

ADVANTAGE: *GTY*

*SNH Hitters vs GTY Hitters*

SNH ranked 6th in hitting this year and with the likes of Baez, Trout and
Peralta on the roster, it’s easy to see why.  This team is built on speed
(113 SB’s this year) but they do strike out a lot (+1400 K’s).  This team
engineers runs and they have the horses to do it.  Top to bottom, a very
well built team that will tax the GTY pitching staff…and having scored 5.15
runs per game, it’s obvious

GTY ranked 11th in hitting, a very good but not great hitting team.
Certainly hampered by the loss of LeMahieu and Longoria, it will be up to
Merrifield and Bell to pick up the slack left by their fallen comrades.
During the regular season, GTY scored 4.62 runs per game which isn’t bad.
But compared to SNH, it’s a mile.

*ADVANTAGE: SNH*

Prediction:  If GTY had a full compliment of hitters, this could very well
be a different series.  But losing LeMahieu and Longoria is going to be
tough.  Additionally, Doug Fister is out the first several games due to
injury.  SNH is going to pound the ball and run.  The GTY backstops will
probably have carpel tunnel having thrown to 2nd so often this series.
Blind Man Willie likes SNH to move on in the AC, probably in 4 games.



So there you have it.  Willie likes POR and SNH in the wildcard round but
then again he ain’t too bright (he also likes the casino’s $1 Shrimp
Cocktails and well…..don’t tell him that it ain’t shrimp.  Hell, we’re now
sure exactly WHAT they stick in those things, but it ain’t seafood!).  They
don't call him Blind Man McGuffin for nothing.
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