[IBL] Playoff odds going into Sunday night

[Chris Hartjes]

I know I didn't run this very much this year, but here are the odds as of the latest DB dump (along with playing the OXY vs POR rainout game).

There is a very real chance that there will have to be a 163rd game played for one of the AC wild card spots given the range of possible outcomes.

Starting to simulate 100000 seasons...


AC East
NJR 92.6 - 69.4 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
TRI 80.9 - 81.1 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
COU 77.3 - 84.7 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
KAT 68.2 - 93.8 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC Central
PHI 95.3 - 66.7 99.6% Div + 0.4% WC = 100.0%
BOW 89.8 - 72.2 0.4% Div + 86.8% WC = 87.2%
WMS 87.7 - 74.3 0.0% Div + 18.7% WC = 18.7%
OXY 37.5 - 124.5 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

AC West
MCM 109.3 - 52.7 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
POR 90.6 - 71.4 0.0% Div + 93.8% WC = 93.8%
MAD 86.3 - 75.7 0.0% Div + 0.3% WC = 0.3%
LAD 49.6 - 112.4 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC East
SKY 102.5 - 59.5 99.5% Div + 0.5% WC = 100.0%
SNH 95.6 - 66.4 0.5% Div + 99.5% WC = 100.0%
SDQ 78.7 - 83.3 0.0% Div + 2.7% WC = 2.7%
SLG 78.1 - 83.9 0.0% Div + 2.0% WC = 2.0%

NC Central
NYK 112.1 - 49.9 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
CAN 82.9 - 79.1 0.0% Div + 88.9% WC = 88.9%
SCS 73.1 - 88.9 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
SFP 66.9 - 95.1 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%

NC West
BAL 96.7 - 65.3 100.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 100.0%
GTY 80.2 - 81.8 0.0% Div + 6.5% WC = 6.5%
EDG 61.8 - 100.2 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%
SEA 50.2 - 111.8 0.0% Div + 0.0% WC = 0.0%



-- 
  Chris Hartjes
  chartjes at littlehart.net