[IBL] IBL Range Ratings

[Billy Compton]

Likwise, I agree with Noel.  Appreciate the input!

And Lindor is an E this year, gentlemen.  Not so much the human vacuum as
last year.



On Tue, Mar 27, 2018 at 11:21 AM, Noel Steere <noel.steere at rcn.com> wrote:

> Thanks for the mini-primer at the end, Sean!
>
> I mean that sincerely; I noticed the change in data source when you
> announced it two years ago, but didn’t have a good idea of how IE was
> utilized, leaving me to guess based on comparing players (how does Segura
> stack up to Lindor in these probability buckets?).
>
> Any thought of moving outfield range towards Statcast?  That would seem to
> be the ultimate measure of defense.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> > On Mar 27, 2018, at 9:59 AM, Sean Sweda <sweda at ibl.org> wrote:
> >
> > The primary data source for range ratings was changed to the Inside Edge
> data published on Fangraphs, as announced here:
> >
> > https://lists.ibl.org/pipermail/members/2016-February/001551.html
> >
> > Fangraphs UZR range runs (RngR) is also used as a secondary data source,
> primarily for validation but also because using it allows some in-season
> visibility given that the IE data is not synthesized by Fangraphs into an
> aggregated metric.
> >
> > When the data source was switched the mapping methodology was also
> changed.  Plays made above/below average are converted into a runs saved
> metric and then mapped into a range rating based on the number of expected
> runs saved based on projected distribution of IFR/OFR plays.  For example,
> given the average expected distribution of IFR/OFR plays the difference
> between A (100%) to K (0%) range at 3B would be approximately 44 runs.
> That means in order to gain an A range a 3B would need to grade out over
> +20 runs per season.  For positions that have more plays (e.g. SS, CF) this
> number would need to be even higher.
> >
> > Jace Peterson got a good range rating because he made 1/1 of plays rated
> "unlikely" by IE and 2/2 rated "even" by IE.  An "average" result would
> probably be about 1/3 of those plays.  When you pro-rate the runs saved
> from his 66 innings at 3B to a full season you get an very large value.
> This is pulled back down by combination with the secondary data source
> (UZR) and the capping mechanisms that are applied to low playing time
> players, resulting in "D".
> >
> > My intention has been to create a detailed write-up on the blog, but
> I've only got so much time...
> >
> > TLDR:
> > 1) range is based on IE (and UZR), UZR is a decent approximation
> in-season
> > 2) A/B ratings are very rare now
> > 3) small sample size "flukes" are mitigated but still exist
> >
> >
> > Sean
> >
>
>
>
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