[IBL] IBL AC Wildcard Race (predictions)

[Doug Palmer]

The playoff chase in the IBL AC League



With only 5 weeks left in the season, a full 6 teams still are entertaining
serious playoff hopes.  While the division leaders (COU, PHI, MCM) are all
safely in the playoffs as division winners, Tri-State (TRI), New Jersey
(NJR), Los Angeles  (PAD),  Williamstown (WMS), Portland (POR) and
Baltimore (BAL) are all fighting for the two wild-card slots.  As play
entered into Week 23, the standings were as follows:

PAD: 73 wins with 24 games remaining

POR: 68 wins with 30 games remaining

BAL: 67 wins with 30 games remaining

TRI: 67 wins with 30 games remaining

WMS: 64 wins with 33 games remaining

NJR: 62 wins with 30 games remaining



Looking at the remaining schedule

PAD (NJR, NJR, WMS (twice), PHI (twice), BOW (twice))

POR (NJR, PAD, COU, WMS, BAL (twice), MCM (twice) and MAD (twice))

BAL (BOW, KAT, PAD, NJR, POR (twice), MAD (twice), and MCM (twice))

TRI (MCM, WMS, PHI, MAD, COU(twice), NJR (twice), and KAT (twice))

WMS (KAT, MAD, TRI, COU, POR, PAD (twice), BOW (twice), and PHI (twice))

NJR (POR, BOW, PAD, BAL, KAT (twice), TRI (twice), and COU (twice))



Based solely on the results that precede Week 23, the expected records
against their opponents

PAD: 10-14 the rest of the way

POR: 10-17 the rest of the way

BAL: 19-11 the rest of the way

TRI: 16-14 the rest of the way

WMS: 16-17 the rest of the way

NJR: 14-16 the rest of the way



PAD suffers from having to face Chicago (COU) for two more series and
having only gone 2-10 thus far against Greg and his Cougars.  POR suffers
from having to face Motor City (MCM) for two more series, and like PAD, POR
has gone 2-10 against Sean and his Mauraders.  TRI should be on the green
side of .500 thanks to seeing New Jersey for a pair of series where Jed has
gone 10-2 against them so far.  BAL gets away with murder thanks to seeing
POR and MAD for a pair of series and they’ve gone a collective 17-7 against
them to date.



What doesn’t get accounted for here  are such things as owners who play
players to get usage, teams that are in the playoffs already and are
coasting (all of the contenders face a division leader at least twice with
TRI, WMS and POR having three remaining series against a division leader).  So,
do division leaders coast as the playoffs arrive so that they don’t see
injuries to key players?  Probably.  That alone is probably worth a bit
over 1 win per series against a division leader.



So, let’s assume that playing a division leader the last 5 weeks is
actually EASIER due to the “coasting factor”.  How did the contenders do
against division leaders this year?



PAD: 6-18 (2 series remaining)

POR: 10-23 (3 series remaining)

BAL: 12-12 (2 series remaining)

TRI: 9-24 (2 series remaining)

WMS: 14-19 (3 series remaining)

NJR: 8-16 (2 series remaining)



Thanks to this factor, let’s adjust the expected results going the rest of
the way, giving some credence to the “coasting factor”, let’s give those
playing 2 series an extra 3 wins and playing 3 series, 5 extra wins.



PAD: 13-11 the rest of the way

POR: 15-12 the rest of the way

BAL: 22-8 the rest of the way (*ed: flawed! The numbers are flawed!!!)*

TRI: 19-11 the rest of the way

WMS: 21-12 the rest of the way

NJR: 17-13 the rest of the way



Lastly, what about injuries?  Most of these teams have been fighting
injuries to one extent or another.  But of the teams listed, only PAD
(Richards and Hamilton) and BAL (Machado, Kelly and Lagares) have
significant injuries (WMS did lose Harper, but that was the only player).



So, after ALL of those machinations, where does that leave us?  With the
following predicted final results:



BAL: 89 wins

TRI: 86 wins

PAD: 86 wins

WMS: 85 wins

POR: 83 wins

NJR: 79 wins.



But that’s why they don’t play the games on paper…..except us…..but that’s
beside the point.  Let’s see in 6 weeks how accurate (or Inaccurate) this
assessment is!
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