[IBL] NYK Prospectus and trade flyer

Mon Dec 7 21:56:43 EST 2015

Hey Everyone,

It's that time of year where hope springs eternal, and every drafted player is a sure-fire Hall Of Famer (seriously, have you *seen* the previous year's drafts?).  Nonetheless, the Knights, seemingly like everyone else, are looking for picks this draft.  Unlike everyone else, we're willing to put our young, good players where our mouths are (um...😂).

Below is a position by position breakdown of my players, with some guidance on what it would take to get them.  I'm looking for picks and young talent, leaning towards position players.

Catchers:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
LAN Grandal    61    0.308    0.41    0.385        365    0.221    0.343    0.406    
ARI Castillo    103    0.239    0.311    0.467        275    0.236    0.291    0.448    
Grandal seems to be a budding superstar, given that his full season stats were depressed by a non-throwing shoulder injury that he cleaned up right after the playoffs.  The throwing shoulder was fine, as evinced by his 29% CS rate.

Castillo's power came into full bloom this year, once he hooked up with a team that would just let him play.  All indications are that he has the trust of the pitching staff, so he's a full time catcher for the foreseeable future, likely to keep his top 10 status at the position.

First Basemen
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
NYN Johnson    35    0.273    0.314    0.364        300    0.264    0.314    0.444    
WAS Zimmerman    101    0.33    0.376    0.681        289    0.22    0.284    0.388    
Johnson is playoff eligible at 1B, 2B, and LF, and has playing time at 3B as well, so he has a fair amount of value this year as a part-time Ex power platoon player at a variety of positions.

Zimmerman had some flashes of brilliance this year, and I expect him to improve over these numbers next year.

Second Basemen:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
STL Wong    178    0.229    0.275    0.277        435    0.276    0.34    0.432    
LAA Giavotella    128    0.25    0.325    0.348        374    0.279    0.316    0.384    
Wong leveraged the power stroke he used in the 2014 playoffs to get off to a great first half before coming down to earth in the second.  He's already demonstrated an ability to make adjustments, so I expect him to continue to do so, making him a top young 2B in the game.

Giavotella is the poster child for "cromulent", with some chance of improvement.  A 5th rounder or so will get him.

Shortstops:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
NYN Flores    107    0.31    0.355    0.6        403    0.251    0.279    0.358    
MIL Segura    150    0.283    0.3    0.379        434    0.248    0.274    0.32
Flores continues to improve, going into his age 24 season.  He can be available in trade, but he won't come cheap.  His zone rating came back down to earth, as expected, but his Out Of Zone numbers spiked, making it likely that he'll be a G at short again this year.  With his ability to make solid contact and budding power, a move to 2B (or 3B, depending on Wright's health or ability to make throws) doesn't hurt his value.

Segura is almost at his lowest value, though his defense continues to shine, and he's only 26.  I'm holding onto him, barring an offer that almost certainly isn't coming.

Left Fielders:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
SF Byrd    129    0.271    0.324    0.496        377    0.239    0.279    0.438
Byrd continues to be a major source of power against both sides of the plate, and this year is playoff eligible at both LF and RF (with a rating in CF as well).  Obviously his age means that his value is lower than it could be, so he'd be reasonably priced (low 2/high 3, basically)

Right Fielders:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
DET MartinezJ.    117    0.265    0.377    0.538        479    0.286    0.335    0.534
JD Martinez has firmly established himself as the best non-Harper/non-Stanton right fielder for current and future value combined by repeating his ridiculous power and overall production for the second year in a row, and continuing to play above average defense.  He's available for the right price, which is very high (high first rounder, or equivalent talent)

Minors in '15/Projects
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP        
   PA    Avg    OBP    SLG        PA    Avg    OBP    SLG    
BOS Cecchini                                        
MIN Arcia    25    0.304    0.32    0.304        40    0.257    0.35    0.429    
TB Sizemore    21    0.333    0.429    0.556        275    0.247    0.298    0.369
Sometimes young players have lost seasons.  I still believe in the talent for Cecchini and Arcia, so I won't move them cheaply.  Sizemore picked things up once he moved to Tampa Bay, so he could end up being productive once more in MLB '16.

Starting Pitchers:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP                
   IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        G    GS
MIA Fernandez    25.2    0.333    0.377    0.482        39    0.17    0.217    0.229        11    11
The crown jewel.  There was one player in the draft I'd have traded him for, but now he's gone.

STL Martinez    85.2    0.257    0.339    0.417        94    0.235    0.303    0.32        31    29
Already a #1/#2 type starter, with room to grow into full-on ace.  Would take a high pick in this draft to get.

MIL Nelson    72    0.298    0.381    0.495        105.1    0.198    0.275    0.293        30    30
Nelson had a very successful first full season, with room to improve.  I'll move him if the price is right (mid first rounder), but I'm happy to keep him.

ARI delaRosa    87.1    0.312    0.382    0.567        101.1    0.209    0.265    0.346        32    32
Also bumped his innings this year, and had plenty in the tank in his starts, hitting mid-90s deep into games.  I expect further improvement in MLB '16

TEX Perez    17    0.206    0.279    0.258        61.2    0.3    0.352    0.425        14    14
Coming off Tommy John, continues to get insane levels of grounders.  If he improves next year, will be a perfect fit for Coors as a home park.

TOR Hutchison    82.2    0.262    0.324    0.426        67.2    0.329    0.384    0.522        30    28
No idea what happened here, but I won't give him up for pennies on the dollar.  Better luck next year!

CHA DanksJoh.    45.2    0.235    0.285    0.449        132    0.288    0.349    0.472        30    30
5th starter.  Available for trade if you need innings.

RHP Relievers:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP                
   IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        G    GS
ATL Jackson    22.1    0.169    0.289    0.276        33.1    0.24    0.292    0.365        47    0
LAN Hatcher    14.2    0.173    0.328    0.36        24.1    0.265    0.301    0.381        49    0
LAN Nicasio    15.2    0.348    0.477    0.493        42.2    0.222    0.298    0.335        53    1
LAN Johnson    28.1    0.285    0.336    0.339        38.1    0.293    0.367    0.426        72    0
MIL Thornburg    14.1    0.228    0.313    0.429        20    0.228    0.299    0.41        24    0
MIN Fien    25.2    0.271    0.29    0.427        37.2    0.225    0.257    0.34        62    0
Hatcher seems slated for the 7th inning in the Dodger's pen, so has the most potential.  All of these guys have a side that they shut down (mostly sub .300 OBP).  Will entertain any offer for non-Hatcher parts.

LHP Relievers:
           Vs LHP                    Vs RHP                
   IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        IP    Avg    OBP    SLG        G    GS
TEX Diekman    23.1    0.263    0.364    0.358        35    0.214    0.313    0.351        67    0
CIN Parra    15.2    0.267    0.302    0.441        16.2    0.25    0.288    0.323        40    0
COL Friedrich    29.1    0.256    0.32    0.339        29    0.354    0.433    0.533        68    0

I think Diekman will thrive in Texas.  Parra and Friedrich are useful parts.  Will entertain any offer for them.

Thanks for reading, and good luck!

Noel
NYK

Sent from my iPhone
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