[IBL] IBL Insight Sought

[Nelson Lu]

I will try to write a fuller response later in the week, but based on what I am reading, so far, it seems to be a lot of bad luck.  Carlos Santana, for example, is not a <.200 hitter in reality, but that’s what he’s doing for Cleveland so far...

On May 26, 2014, at 4:47 PM, Doug Palmer <aeronutty43 at gmail.com> wrote:

> All (especially IBL old timers)
> 
> I was going to rant about how this is the 5th year of futility for the Crabs, but in all honesty, it's getting old.  So instead, I'm looking for IBL insight into a phenomena that I seem to be suffering from.
> 
> The player cards are based on the previous years numbers.  The algorithm involved is probably quite heady, but I'm guessing (hoping?) that the numbers are predicated on actual performance.  Now, knowing that, and understanding that Pursue the Pennant (the game that is the mechanics behind the IBL) is a dice-game, how accurate have you found the cards to be?  Will a .300 hitter actually achieve a .300 batting average (give or take...what....10%?).  Same with pitchers, are their WHIP's predictable?
> 
> I've lost something like 15 straight on the road, been no-hit, been 2 hit, been shutout half a dozen times and scored 2 or less in nearly half of my games.  Most of my players are batting 50-100+ points below where they "should be". (i.e. Hosmer was a .302 batter in 2013 and is hitting .202 for me here).  I had been taking players in the draft or proposing in trades based on their actual numbers from the prior season (K-rate, walk rate, WHIP, OBP, etc...).  But is that even relative?
> 
> Granted, it's only 1/3rd of the season, but when I see numbers like this, I start to question the validity of the stats that back up the game
> 
> Hosmer .201 (actual .302)
> Lagares .172 (actual .242)
> LeMahieu .149 (actual .280)
> Markakis .231 (.271 actual)
> Castro .223 (.245 actual)
> Suzuki .176 (.232 actual)
> Conger .200 (.249 actual)
> Villar .143 (.243 actual)
> 
> This doesn't even include pitchers who's WHIP's and ERA's are significantly higher than their 2013 season (along with K-rate and walk-rate).
> 
> It's a game based on rolling a pair of dice, I know.  Is what I'm seeing a mirage?  Are numbers always lower than in actuality?  Am I simply seeing a 100 AB slump by the majority of my lineup (for the 5th straight year, btw)? Why should I care that Starlin Castro is having a much better season statistically if he's just going to bat .200 for me regardless? 
> 
> Are we just looking at bad luck, or is this how the game is statistically built?
> 
> Doug/BAL
> 
>